The Inevitability of Artificial General Intelligence: Why it’s Coming Sooner Than We Think
Feb. 20, 2023.
2 min. read. 1 likes. 0
“In the AGI era, effective international collaboration is key,” says Esti Peshin, VP and General Manager of the Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) Cyber Division
The ability of an artificial intelligence to learn any intellectual task that a human can is referred to as artificial general intelligence (AGI). While many experts believe that AGI will take hundreds of years or may never be achieved, many are now starting to believe that AGI will be available within the next decade. The reason for this is that we already have the knowledge to create massive programs capable of processing and analyzing data faster and more accurately than a human could.
To achieve AGI, however, researchers must shift their focus away from ever-expanding datasets and toward a more biologically plausible structure that allows AI to begin exhibiting the same kind of contextual, common-sense understanding as humans. This entails incorporating consciousness components such as an internal mental model of the environment with the entity at the center, a sense of time, and imagination. Unfortunately, today’s narrow AI applications do not store information in a way that allows it to be integrated and used by other AI applications.
The catch is that marketability is the key to AGI’s success. Individually marketable capabilities will be created as a result of AGI development. Something is created that improves Alexa’s understanding of you, and everyone rushes to bring that new development to market. Someone else develops something with better vision that can be used in a self-driving car, and everyone rushes to market with that development as well. While each of these developments is marketable on its own, the sooner we can begin to connect them, the more they can interact and build a broader context, and the faster we can approach AGI.
While today’s AI is limited by its reliance on massive datasets, AGI is unavoidable because market forces will prevail, and it is only a matter of time before the insights required to make it work. Nobody will notice as we approach human-level intelligence at first, but at some point, we will have machines that are clearly superior to human intelligence, and people will begin to agree that AGI exists. It’s time to refocus our efforts on developing a biologically plausible structure for AGI to exhibit contextual, common-sense understanding, and to capitalize on the market forces that will propel us toward its emergence.
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