Donald Trump’s Surge on Polymarket Raising Manipulation Concerns

Oct. 08, 2024. 2 mins. read.

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Donald Trump is seeing a significant rise in support on Polymarket, taking a 53.1% lead over Kamala Harris, who currently holds 46.2%, as the U.S. election draws closer with only 28 days remaining. This sudden jump in odds has sparked speculation about possible market manipulation, with some pointing fingers at tech billionaire Elon Musk.

Trump’s current 53.1% winning odds are the highest they’ve been in two months, a leap that coincides with Musk’s recent social media activity. Musk, who has voiced his support for Trump on platform X (formerly Twitter), even updated his profile picture to show him wearing a MAGA hat. In a recent interview with Tucker Carlson, Musk declared, “I’m all in on Trump,” further fueling rumors of his involvement.

Additionally, Musk praised Polymarket for being more accurate than traditional polls, highlighting Trump’s growing lead. As the margin between Trump and Harris has increased from 3% to nearly 7% in just one day, suspicions of manipulation have intensified.

A key figure in this speculation is a Polymarket user with the handle “Fredi9999,” who holds $7.9 million in Trump shares, the platform’s largest position. Fredi9999’s purchasing behavior, which includes placing large bets and using limit orders to accumulate shares, has raised questions about whether this individual could be Musk himself.

However, some experts, like political bettor Domer, believe that Fredi9999 may simply be a wealthy Trump supporter with no direct link to Musk. “Regardless of the intent, Fredi9999 seems to be a genuine supporter of the Trump campaign,” Domer commented.

Adam Cochran of Cinneamhain Ventures suggests that many of Trump’s supporters on Polymarket are betting based on emotion, not logic, following a narrative that is driving up spending on the platform.

While the true identity of Fredi9999 remains uncertain, the user’s actions are undeniably shaping market sentiment as the election nears.

Source: Donald Trump’s Sudden Polymarket Surge Raises Manipulation Concerns

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