SpaceX achieved another milestone with the successful Starship's Integrated Flight Test 11 (IFT-11).
This test, marking the final test of the current iteration of the massive rocket system, demonstrated significant advancements in reliability and performance, paving the way for future missions to the Moon and beyond. The Super Heavy booster (B15) and upper stage Ship (S38) performed a flawless ascent powered by 33 Raptor engines.
The mission's objectives focused on validating key technologies for reusability and operational capabilities. Following liftoff, the vehicle executed a hot-staging separation, where the booster's engines shut down while the ship's engines ignited simultaneously. The Super Heavy booster, on its second flight, conducted a novel landing burn configuration - starting with 13 engines, reducing to 5, then 3, and finally shutting down - culminating in a controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico about 10 minutes after launch. This test aimed to reduce stress on the booster during descent and improve future catch attempts using the launch tower's "chopstick" arms.
Meanwhile, the Starship upper stage continued into a suborbital trajectory, successfully deploying eight dummy Starlink satellites as a simulation for future payload operations. A critical in-space Raptor engine relight was performed, mimicking a deorbit burn essential for controlled reentries. The ship also executed dynamic banking maneuvers to simulate a return to the launch site, providing valuable data for precision landings. Heat shield performance was rigorously tested, with intentionally missing or gapped tiles to stress the system; remarkably, reentry plasma visuals showed minimal damage, with the flaps and structure holding up better than in previous tests. After a flight lasting about 66 minutes, the ship splashed down on target in the Indian Ocean. All major test objectives were met without catastrophic failures. Minor issues were noted but did not detract from the overall success.
This test flight follows 10 previous tests, which included milestones like the first successful hot-staging, booster splashdowns, and chopstick catches. With IFT-11, SpaceX has achieved back-to-back 100% mission successes, boosting confidence in the system's maturation. The Starship program will now move to Version 3 prototypes, featuring higher-thrust Raptor 3 engines, improved heat shields, and enhanced reusability for orbital refueling and Starlink deployments.
Beyond its technical achievements, IFT-11 underscores Starship's pivotal role in NASA's Artemis program. Selected in 2021 as the Human Landing System (HLS) for Artemis III - slated for mid-2027 - Starship will transport astronauts from lunar orbit to the Moon's surface. The planned mission would involve launching astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft on NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) rocket, followed by docking with a pre-positioned, refueled Starship in lunar orbit for the descent. The project relies on SpaceX's cost-effective innovation, though challenges like in-orbit refueling - requiring up to 10 tanker launches - remain unproven. NASA officials express optimism, citing SpaceX's successes in programs like Commercial Crew, but acknowledge the timeline is significantly challenged.
Can the US beat China to the Moon?
The success of IFT-11 comes at a critical juncture in the intensifying US-China space race to return humans to the Moon. Recent analyses highlight how America has fallen behind due to policy missteps, inadequate funding, and over-reliance on legacy systems like SLS.
A CNN report from October 12, emphasizes Starship's role in countering China's ambitions, noting NASA's determination to beat Beijing despite delays. With China poised for a taikonaut landing by 2030 - or possibly earlier - experts warn of a historic shift if the US falters.
Relying on SpaceX "doesn’t make a lot of sense if you’re trying to go first to the moon, this time to beat China," former NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine said as reported by CNN.
Considering alternatives to SpaceX
The CNN report also notes that "NASA brought Blue Origin on as a second contractor in 2023 to build lunar landers for use later in the Artemis program."
In a detailed Ars Technica article published on October 13, experts argue that China has advanced methodically since its 2003 human spaceflight, with the Chang'e missions building toward a 2030 crewed landing. The piece suggests the US could catch up by accelerating private-sector alternatives, such as raising funding for commercial payloads or adapting Blue Origin's Mark 1 lander for human missions.
"The answer is Blue Origin's Mark 1 lander," says Ars Technica writer Eric Berger. "The company has finished assembly of the first Mark 1 lander and will soon ship it from Florida to Johnson Space Center in Houston for vacuum chamber testing. A pathfinder mission is scheduled to launch in early 2026. It will be the largest vehicle to ever land on the Moon. It is not rated for humans, however. It was designed as a cargo lander."
Berger's endorsement of a SpaceX competitor seems surprising since Berger is known as a SpaceX fan and the author of two books on SpaceX.
What next?
Starship's complexities, including untested refueling and past test failures (six out of ten prior flights), heighten risks, but development could be accelerated in the wake of IFT-11's success. Bipartisan calls urge NASA to prioritize urgency, potentially redirecting funds from SLS to innovative paths.
Starship IFT-11 validates SpaceX's rapid iteration approach and improves America's position in the lunar race. The program is switching to Version 3, with orbital refueling tests on the horizon. Full success would enable sustainable Moon bases under Artemis, reclaiming US leadership. However, policy decisions and sustained investment are essential to outpace China and realize the vision of multiplanetary humanity.
I'm on record saying that I don't really care who "wins" the race to return to the Moon permanently. Once the next astronauts or taikonauts walk on the Moon, humanity will be on a path to victory, which is the important thing. But China's "victory" could be catastrophic for the spirit of the West.
I watched IFT-11 with awe and hopeful enthusiasm. Like Berger, I'm a SpaceX fan. I share Elon Musk's vision of a multiplanetary humanity, and I'm persuaded that future Starship missions could take us to Mars.
But with an imminent deadline on the horizon, I find myself supporting a cautious approach. The Artemis II mission could take astronauts to lunar orbit as early as next February and validate the SLS approach, if only as a temporary solution. I think NASA would do well to follow Berger's suggestion and consider relying on Blue Origin for the first Moon landing of this century. Then, there'll be time to gradually integrate SpaceX and Starship.