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conor o'higgins

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    Conor

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This is the 3rd post about my DIY psi experiment. Here are Part 1 and Part 2.


I was seeing if I could influence a random-number-generator mentally or psychically. The idea was to roll a lot of virtual dice and will the number FOUR to come up.


The results are negative. No evidence of psi.


While willing the number 4 to come up, I got: 1034 ones 982 twos 1043 threes 955 fours 1043 fives 943 sixes

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This follows on my first post about my DIY psi experiment. Psi-sceptic explanations to consider:
  • "It was just a coincidence" – prevented by statistical calculation
  • "You analysed the data various ways until you found a way of making it look good" – prevented by this post, which commits me to a particular methodology before I conduct the experiment. I will post the data whether it shows an effect or not.
  • "You quit when you were ahead" – prevented by this post; I have decided on the number of trials in advance: 6000
  • "You lied" – this I can't prove to you, but I know for my own self. You can try replicate.
  • "The dice are biased" – To control this, I rolled 600 virtual dice on the 16th of April and made no attempt to psychically influence them. I got: 984 ones, 973 twos, 1007 threes, 1015 fours, 964 fives, 1057 sixes
  Three things that might help the psi effect – worth mentioning to would-be replicators:
  1. According to an article in 'Evidence for psi thirteen empirical research reports' edited by Ben Gortzel, psi effects are strongest around 13:47 sidereal time; I will use sidereal.app/calculate to optimise this
  2. It's the day of a full moon; Dean Radin has investigated if this affects psi
  3. random.org uses a random number generator in Dublin, Ireland, about one mile from where I conducted the experiment
 
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Years ago, I tried to influence the random-number-generator on random.org with my mind. I was surprised to get results with p<0.01 likelihood, but I no longer have the data. Tomorrow, Tuesday the 23rd, I will try a larger repeat performance.


random.org allows you to generate integers, lottery picks, dice, etc. Among these, https://www.random.org/dice/ is the one I've chosen because it allows me to gather a large amount of data quickly: you can roll 60 virtual dice with one click.


I plan to roll 6000 virtual dice, while trying to psychically will the number FOUR to come up. If there is a small but real effect, these large numbers will allow me to detect it.


On the 3rd of April, I did a small experiment: I rolled 600 virtual dice and got 118 fours. This is a p=value of 0.02956, meaning this abundance of fours will occur 3% of the time by chance. Pretty good.


These results are interesting enough that I want to do it once and for all with 6000 rolls instead of 600. This should give me a decisive p-value. If the same proportion of fours is replicated again among 6000 rolls (1180 instead of the chance-expected 1000), the odds of fluke approach zero. Any number of fours above about 1140 is a one-in-a-million fluke.



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