Author: Werner

Freelance crypto content editor, strategist and writer since the very top of 2017's bull run.  Based in Cape Town, SA and previously lived in Asia for a decade. I'm a big believer in the good that decentralized network technology and ethical AI can bring to make the world a more fair and transparent place.

Ten Essential Bitcoin Charts To Know In 2025

Posted on by Werner

Introduction

Cryptocurrency markets change quickly, so it is important for investors to monitor key metrics that show market trends, performance, and sentiment.  

Bitcoin is king, and where it goes, the market usually follows. These charts provide essential data to understand Bitcoin’s market position, performance, and future trends. Let’s dive in. 

  1. Bitcoin/USD
Credit: CoinMarketCap

Everything in crypto starts with the Bitcoin chart, measured against the de-facto world currency (for now?) the U.S. Dollar. This is the first and still most important chart in crypto, which you can find on sites like CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, and your favorite exchange’s BTC trading page. 

Determine the time range you’d like to review – with Bitcoin, it’s better to zoom out to steady your nerves; the 4-year halving cycle below proves this. Dial up Crypto Twitter, understand how events like Chinese New Year, Christmas, U.S. Tax Season, U.S. elections, summer holidays and others can impact the price of BTC each year. 

Also, understand how to read a Bitcoin depth chart here. You have your homework cut out for you! 

  1. Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)
Credit: TradingView

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) represents Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market. When BTC.D rises, it signals that Bitcoin is performing better than altcoins, often during market corrections when investors prefer safer assets. 

A falling BTC.D usually indicates increased interest in altcoins, particularly in bullish markets as traders chase higher returns. For example, during the 2017 ICO surge, BTC.D dropped to nearly 32% due to an altcoin boom. 

Tracking BTC.D helps traders understand market dynamics and adjust their portfolios accordingly, balancing exposure between Bitcoin and altcoins based on current trends and sentiment.

  1. Bitcoin mining hash rate
Credit: Blockchain.com

The Bitcoin mining hash rate measures the computational power used by miners to process transactions and secure the Bitcoin network. It shows how many calculations are performed every second to solve the mathematical problems required for mining new Bitcoin blocks. 

A higher hash rate makes the network more secure, as it becomes harder for bad actors to control or attack it. Factors that influence the hash rate include mining equipment efficiency, electricity costs, and Bitcoin’s price. Over the years, the hash rate has grown significantly, due to advancements in technology and increased participation from global mining operations.

  1. On-Chain Metrics (Wallet Balances & Transactions)
Credit: The Block

On-chain metrics track blockchain activity by analyzing wallet balances and transaction histories. Wallet balances reveal how much cryptocurrency users are holding, helping identify trends like accumulation or selling. 

‘Transaction volume’ measures the number of transactions happening on the network, showing how actively the cryptocurrency is being used. Higher transaction volumes can signal strong market activity, while lower volume may suggest reduced engagement. 

These metrics provide a hint of a cryptocurrency’s network health, helping investors make better decisions based on real blockchain data instead of relying solely on price charts or market speculation.

  1. Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR)
Credit: CryptoQuant

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the total market cap of all stablecoins. It shows how much buying power stablecoins have relative to Bitcoin. A low SSR means there are more stablecoins available, indicating strong potential buying power that could push Bitcoin’s price up. 

A high SSR suggests fewer stablecoins are in circulation. This means less capital is available for Bitcoin purchases, a factor that could limit price movement. Investors use SSR to assess market liquidity and anticipate possible price movements based on how much money is ready to flow into Bitcoin from stablecoins.

Credit: Tesfu Assefa
  1. Bitcoin Volatility Index (Crypto VIX)
Credit: TradingView

The Bitcoin Volatility Index (Crypto VIX) measures how much Bitcoin’s price is expected to fluctuate over a set period, typically 30 days. It’s calculated using data from Bitcoin options trading. A high volatility index means Bitcoin’s price could change significantly; it means a risky and uncertain market. A low index suggests the market is stable: smaller price movements are expected. 

Traders and investors use this index to gauge market sentiment, adjust their portfolios, and make informed trading decisions. Understanding Bitcoin’s volatility helps manage risks and spot trading opportunities in the unpredictable cryptocurrency market.

  1. Bitcoin ETF inflows and institutional investments
Credit: Coinglass

ETF inflows and institutional investments play a crucial role in the cryptocurrency market. When large institutions invest in Bitcoin through ETFs, it indicates growing trust in digital assets. ETFs allow traditional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding it. 

For example, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has attracted billions of dollars, boosting market confidence. Higher ETF inflows often signal strong demand, which can push Bitcoin’s price upward. Investments from major firms like Fidelity and Grayscale show long-term interest. Monitoring these inflows helps investors gauge market sentiment, as increased institutional participation often leads to higher liquidity and reduced market volatility.

  1. Bitcoin four-year cycle
Credit: TradingView

The Bitcoin four-year cycle is a pattern based on Bitcoin’s halving events, which occur approximately every four years. During each halving, the reward for mining Bitcoin is reduced by half, limiting new supply. This scarcity often leads to price increases due to higher demand and lower availability.

The cycle includes four phases: accumulation, uptrend, distribution, and downtrend. Prices typically rise after halving events, followed by a peak, profit-taking, and eventual correction. Understanding this cycle helps investors anticipate potential market movements. By studying past cycles, traders can make better investment decisions, identifying favorable entry and exit points for long-term profitability.

  1. Bitcoin Exchange Flows
Credit: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin Exchange Flows charts are used by traders to monitor the flow of Bitcoin into and out of exchanges. This can provide insights into market sentiment and potential price movements, and traders can gauge whether investors are accumulating or distributing their holdings. Increased inflows often indicate that traders are preparing to sell, which can lead to downward price pressure, while outflows suggest accumulation and potential bullish trends. 

Additionally, these charts help identify significant shifts in trading volume, which can signal upcoming volatility or trend reversals. Understanding exchange flows thus empowers traders to make informed decisions based on market dynamics and investor behavior. 

  1. Altcoin Season Index
Credit: Coinmarketcap

Bitcoin doesn’t just go up indefinitely. Eventually, it’ll take a breather and let the rest of the market share in the spoils, which sees massive growth for the many altcoins. 

Altcoin Season Index tracks how well altcoins perform compared to Bitcoin over a 90-day period. If 75% or more of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin, it is considered an ‘Altcoin Season’: a strong altcoin market.

If fewer than 25% outperform Bitcoin, it’s ‘Bitcoin Season’, meaning Bitcoin is dominating the market. This index helps investors see when altcoins might offer better returns, guiding them to a trading strategy that favours altcoins. By keeping an eye on this index, traders can adjust their portfolios to take advantage when the market trends towards Bitcoin and away from it, to maximize potential profits during favorable market conditions.

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Fully Homomorphic Encryption: Revolutionizing Crypto Privacy

Posted on by Werner

The cryptocurrency industry has always walked a fine line between transparency and privacy. Public ledgers like Bitcoin ensure transparency, but the lack of privacy poses challenges for individuals and enterprises alike. It was therefore a welcome signal from U.S. regulators when U.S. courts threw out the OFAC case against TornadoCash, a mainstay privacy “mixer” protocol. Privacy is back in vogue in 2025, so what’s next? 

Enter Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE)—a cutting-edge cryptographic solution that can reshape how privacy and data security are handled in crypto.

FHE has the potential to address some of crypto’s most pressing privacy and scalability challenges. FHE can run computations on encrypted data, and this unlocks use-cases previously deemed impractical – such as private smart contracts, confidential DeFi transactions, and secure voting in DAOs.

Let’s dive into how FHE works, its advantages over existing solutions, and how Web3 projects like Zama and Fhenix are applying this revolutionary technology to the crypto space.

What is Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE)?

In cryptocurrency, privacy and security are paramount, but they often come at a cost to usability or performance. FHE offers a novel way to maintain privacy without compromising functionality, because – unlike traditional encryption, which requires decrypting data for processing – FHE allows operations directly on encrypted data. 

For example, imagine a DeFi protocol that calculates how much a user can make by yield farming on their wallet. It would be desirable to keep the balances of the wallet private. Fully Homomorphic Encryption can run yield computations on encrypted wallet balances, keeping the user’s financial data private while still enabling the software to work with that data. Once the FHE computation has run, the output matches what the operation would have produced on plaintext data, but end-to-end security was maintained.

How FHE Works in Crypto

Credit: IBM Systems

FHE works by using complex mathematical operations to encode data such that only authorized parties can decrypt and view results. Here’s how it applies to crypto-specific use cases:

  1. Data Encryption: Wallet balances, transaction details, and smart contract states are encrypted using a public key.
  1. Computation on Encrypted Data: The blockchain, or a decentralized application (dApp), performs necessary computations (e.g., token swaps, staking rewards) without decrypting the data.
  1. Decryption of the output: The user or authorized party decrypts the result using their private key, revealing the final outcome (e.g., the amount of rewards earned).

This approach keeps all sensitive data encrypted during processing, ensuring no one—including validators or miners—can access private details.

How FHE Improves on zk-SNARKs and zk-STARKs

Zero-knowledge (zk) proofs, such as zk-SNARKs and zk-STARKs, have been instrumental in enhancing blockchain privacy. They allow users to prove the validity of a statement (e.g., ownership of funds) without revealing the underlying data. However, zk-proofs are limited to verification tasks and are not suited for general-purpose computations on encrypted data.

Fully Homomorphic Encryption takes privacy a level beyond zk-proofs by enabling arbitrary computations. Here’s how FHE improves on zk-tech:

  • Generalized Computation: While zk-proofs specialize in verifying specific claims, FHE supports complex computations, such as executing encrypted smart contracts.
  • Privacy Across Layers: FHE provides privacy for both on-chain and off-chain processes, whereas zk-proofs are primarily limited to specific use cases like transaction anonymity.
  • Reduced Interactivity: zk-proofs often require interactive proof-generation, whereas FHE computations are non-interactive, making them more scalable for decentralized environments.

Benefits of FHE in Crypto

  1. Privacy-Preserving Smart Contracts

Smart contracts are the backbone of DeFi, but their transparency can be a double-edged sword. FHE enables the execution of private smart contracts, where all inputs, states, and outputs remain encrypted. For instance, a private lending protocol could assess borrower creditworthiness without exposing sensitive financial data.

  1. Confidential Transactions

While zk-proofs already allow for confidential transactions (e.g. Zcash, Tornado Cash), FHE expands this capability by enabling additional computations. For example, an FHE-based DeFi aggregator could send trades across multiple liquidity pools without unmasking the user.

  1. Decentralized Identity (DID)

FHE can enhance decentralized identity systems because it can keep identity data encrypted, and still enabling verifiable computations on it. This ensures privacy during authentication processes: for example, for adult dApps, the system could verify that someone is over 18 without needing to know their date-of-birth or any other personal information.

  1. Regulatory Compliance

With regulators increasingly scrutinizing the crypto industry, FHE allows platforms to provide compliance-ready solutions without sacrificing user privacy. For example, exchanges could perform anti-money laundering (AML) checks on encrypted user data, ensuring compliance while safeguarding user identities.

  1. Secure Multi-Party Computation (MPC)

FHE simplifies secure multi-party computation, a process essential for activities like DAO voting and collaborative audits. Participants contribute encrypted inputs, and computations are performed on those without revealing individual input data.

Biggest FHE Projects for 2025

Zama: Bridging FHE and Blockchain

Zama is a trailblazer in bringing Fully Homomorphic Encryption to real-world applications, including blockchain and crypto. Their goal is to make FHE accessible to developers through optimized tools and libraries.

Credit: Zama
  • Concrete Framework: Zama’s open-source ‘Concrete’ library simplifies the integration of FHE into decentralized applications. For example, developers can use this framework to create private smart contracts without needing advanced cryptography expertise.
  • DeFi Use Cases: Zama is actively exploring how FHE can enhance privacy in DeFi. Imagine yield optimizers like Yearn Finance performing encrypted calculations to generate optimal returns without exposing user balances or strategies.
  • Performance Optimization: Zama is addressing one of FHE’s biggest challenges—computation overhead—with hardware acceleration and mathematical optimizations.

Fhenix: Privacy Meets Scalability

Fhenix takes Fully Homomorphic Encryption a step further by applying it directly to blockchain architecture. Their mission is to create privacy-preserving, scalable solutions that address the main blockchain limitations.

  • Encrypted Smart Contracts: Fhenix enables private smart contracts. Developers can use this to build dApps that process sensitive data securely. For example, a payroll dApp could compute salaries based on encrypted work hours without revealing employee data to the employer.
  • Layer-2 Scalability: Fhenix uses FHE to help layer-2 scalability. Encrypted transactions are bundled and processed off-chain, reducing blockchain congestion while maintaining privacy.
  • Privacy-First DAOs: By integrating FHE, Fhenix supports confidential DAO voting and decision-making processes, ensuring member privacy without sacrificing transparency.

The protocol has a ton of other use cases, such as MEV protection and blind auctions. 

Credit: Gate Learn

Challenges and the Road Ahead

For all its promise, Fully Homomorphic Encryption still faces challenges that need to be addressed for widespread adoption in crypto:

  1. Computation Overhead: FHE operations are resource-intensive, and can be slower than traditional methods. Zama and Fhenix are working to optimize performance, but further advancements are needed.
  2. Key Management: Secure and user-friendly key management is critical for FHE adoption in crypto wallets and applications.
  3. Interoperability: Standardization across different FHE schemes to ensure compatibility across a broad blockchain ecosystem.
  4. Developer Adoption: Making it easy to integrate FHE tools into dApps is crucial for fostering adoption.

Conclusion

Fully Homomorphic Encryption represents a paradigm shift in crypto privacy and security. By enabling computations on encrypted data, FHE empowers developers to build complex privacy-preserving applications that were previously impossible. 

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What is Decentralized Science (DeSci)?

Posted on by Werner

Introduction

Science is the cornerstone of human progress, but slow processes, limited access to funding, and opaque practices often hinder innovation. Decentralized science (DeSci) has recently emerged as a potential competitor to the old order of science. DeSci uses the tenets of blockchain technology – decentralization, democratized access, and transparency – to open new doors for collaboration, funding, and discovery.

Freed from traditional institutions and gatekeepers, DeSci is transforming how research is conducted, shared, and funded. It’s not just improving science: it’s making it more open, efficient, and accessible. The COVID-19 pandemic showed the disconnect between science and the public’s perception of facts. Science should not have problems with individuals or the public when it’s brought down out of the ivory towers.

Can DeSci reshape science and restore lost trust?

What are the Challenges of Traditional Science?

One major issue with traditional science is accessibility. Scientific publishing is often controlled by for-profit journals. Scientists should focus on solving scientific problems, instead of on accessing journals behind paywalls. The centralized business of scientific publication is highly profitable, and is concentrated in the hands of a few companies. 

Interdisciplinary and inclusive research is often sidelined. Funding tends to be directed to established fields, leaving innovative or minority-led projects underfunded.

Transparency is also a concern. Allocation of research funding can lack accountability. The peer review process may lack complete transparency, leaving room for bias.

DeSci seeks to address these challenges by rethinking how science is organized and shared.

Principles and Values of DeSci

Here are some of the core principles that DeSci uses in the hope of creating a better scientific ecosystem:

  • Transparency: Research data and findings should be accessible to everyone. Transparent processes build trust within the scientific community.
  • Collaboration Across Disciplines: Solving complex problems requires teamwork. DeSci encourages researchers from different fields to collaborate. This breaks down silos and fosters innovation.

What are the Benefits of DeSci?

Decentralized Science (DeSci) offers numerous benefits that address the limitations of traditional scientific practices while opening new pathways for research and collaboration. Here are the key benefits:

  • Crowdfunding – Blockchain has proven itself as a way of raising funds for unconventional projects that would not have otherwise seen the light of day. With DeSci, researchers can propose projects directly to the community, limiting the influence of major centralized organizations that bring their motives and agendas.
  • Tokenization and Funding – DeSci enables the tokenization of research data, or intellectual property. Researchers and volunteers can receive direct compensation for their contributions, creating new funding models and incentives.
  • Enhanced Data Security – Research data stored on decentralized ledgers is secure and immutable. This prevents data manipulation since blockchains are tamper-proof.
  • Improved Science Communication – Science text is filled with jargon that the average Jane and Joe don’t understand. DeSci, together with AI, can create science summaries that promote understanding and trust. This could help to dispel science myths and dangerous science conspiracy theories. 

Is DeSci Gaining Traction?

DeSci is a relatively small sector in the crypto field. This is nothing to be ashamed of: other sectors such as DeFi, DePIN, and AI started this way. As of December 10, DeSci has a market cap of than $800 million spread across more than 40 projects.

Credit: CoinMarketCap

DeSci is also enjoying the support of leading crypto figures and firms. Binance, through its venture arm Binance Labs, invested an undisclosed sum in Bio Protocol to accelerate decentralized science. This is a significant development, making it the next sector of crypto to grab headlines and gain public attention. In most cases, venture firms like to invest in projects or companies before they catch fire and explode.

Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao, better known as CZ, and Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin attended a small DeSci gathering organized by Labs in Bangkok. 

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong co-founded ResearchCoin, a DeSci project. 

DeSci could be the next big thing as crypto leaders take small but bold steps in supporting decentralized science. It may not be a good idea to bet against it. 

DeSci is also integrating with emerging technology. The incorporation of AI and the Internet of Things (IoT) into DeSci enhances data input and analysis. 

Importantly, token-based incentives can go a long way in rewarding peer reviewers and contributors. This aspect of DeSci makes it more financially attractive than traditional science.

Top DeSci Projects

Here are four leading DeSci projects to be aware of:

ResearchCoin (RSC)

ResearchHub aims to accelerate scientific progress by creating a collaborative platform for researchers. This is similar to how GitHub is used for software development. Its token, ResearchCoin (RSC), incentivizes contributions like uploading research, peer reviews, and discussions. RSC can also be used to tip for content, reward tasks, and fund scientific projects.

Hippocrat (HPO)

Hippocrat (HPO) is a decentralized cryptocurrency revolutionizing healthcare by giving people control over their health data. Using blockchain and zero-knowledge-proof technologies, it ensures data privacy, security, and collaboration.

VitaDAO

VitaDAO is a community-owned DAO. Members collectively engage in decision-making about funding research on extending human lifespan and improving longevity. The aim is to foster collaboration in longevity science, and support drug development through decentralized, member-governed governance. 

Rejuve.AI (RJV)

Rejuve.AI, under the SingularityNET umbrella, is the first decentralized aging research network powered by AI. It aims to make longevity accessible for all by building a global wellness ecosystem centered around the RJV Token. Rejuve.AI incentivizes secure health data sharing, allowing individuals to harness their data’s earning potential via blockchain and smart contracts. Through gamification and microlearning, their Rejuve Longevity App engages users and encourages them to take an active role in their health. Rejuve.AI is also exploring novel frontiers such as quantum biology to uncover new clues in the fight against aging.

Credit: Tesfu Assefa

Conclusion

DeSci is gaining momentum due to its advantages over traditional science, addressing issues like gatekeeping and lack of transparency. The sector spans diverse areas, including decentralized medicine and longevity research, offering innovative solutions to complex challenges.

However, DeSci is not without criticism. Some view it as a cash-grab, while others see it as overly ambitious or misinformed. These criticisms highlight that DeSci is still in its early stages of development.

Like any transformative movement, DeSci requires time to mature and build public trust. While the road ahead is long, it can become the future of science if it plays its cards right.

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Has the Altcoin Season Started?

Posted on by Werner

Introduction

While Bitcoin has had its moment this year, most crypto traders have one wish for Christmas: the arrival of altcoin season when green candles fly across the market. The mood has shifted and many are thinking the crypto gods have ushered in altcoin season. 

Altcoins are making a strong comeback, with some old coins, ‘dinosaur’ coins like XRP, HBAR and XLM, notching crazy gains. The industry, which has suffered at the hands of regulators, is about to catch a break as the USA shifts its regulatory stance on crypto. 

World Liberty Financial, a company linked to President-elect Donald Trump has splashed millions buying altcoins – Ethereum, LINK, and AAVE. Is it time for the ‘Number Go Up’ memes?

With fresh optimism in the market, let’s check the signs and trends to assess whether the altcoin season is approaching or has started.

You don’t want to be late to the bull market’s ‘altcoin season’ party.

What is the Altcoin Season?

Altcoin season refers to a market phase where altcoins outperform Bitcoin on price appreciation. Historically, these periods have been marked by dramatic gains for smaller and less established coins, as traders and investors diversify away from Bitcoin in search of higher returns.

To identify altcoin season, crypto analysts often use the ‘Altcoin Season Index’. This index evaluates the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over a specified period. When a significant majority of altcoins outperform Bitcoin, the index signals that altcoin season has started.

The Altcoin Season Index

CoinMarketCap, the world’s leading crypto price tracker, has an Altcoin Season Index which measures the performance of the top 100 altcoins against Bitcoin over the past 90 days. This index helps determine if an altcoin season has truly started.

Currently, the index sits at 62/100, a decline from the first week of December, with a peak of 87/100 on December 4. Here’s how to interpret these numbers:

  • A score of 75/100 or higher signals an altcoin season.
  • A score of 25/100 or lower suggests a Bitcoin-dominated market.
Credit: CoinMarketCap

While the altcoin season hasn’t officially arrived, the spike to 87/100 on December 4 indicated strong momentum for altcoins. However, a market dip on December 10 caused a dip in the index, leading to losses for several major altcoins. 

Still, based on historical trends and Bitcoin’s current dominance, this could simply be the beginning stages of an altcoin season.

What are the Phases of an Altcoin Season?

Altcoin season typically unfolds in several distinct phases:

Phase 1: Bitcoin Dominance

Traders often first move capital into Bitcoin, seeking stability. This cycle, it’s clear why. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the USA has brought in over $104 billion in assets. This surge helped Bitcoin break the $100k barrier, and even led The Financial Times to apologize for doubting Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s dominance has dropped from 60.1% to 54.8%, as altcoins begin to make big moves. While altcoins are still taking small steps, they are moving closer to a full-blown season.

Credit: CoinMarketCap

Phase 2: Ethereum Gain Momentum

Traditionally, Ethereum would attract the next major capital inflows. But this cycle has been different. Dinosaur coins like XRP, Cardano (ADA), and Stellar have surged back to life. Solana has already reached a new high. Ethereum started the uptrend quietly, but has since regained momentum, pushing toward a new high.

Meme coins have also captured a large share of the market gains. Perhaps it’s because meme coins are simple to understand and less complex than other altcoins.

Credit: CoinMarketCap

Phase 3: Large-Cap Altcoins Rally

Attention shifts to large-cap altcoins as they see a surge in trading volumes. Now, dips are seen as opportunities. Traders with dry powder add to their bags.

Phase 4: Speculative Mania in Smaller Altcoins

Finally, everyone feels like a genius, and traders throw caution to the wind. Smaller-cap altcoins explode in value, driven by FOMO and ‘wen lambo’ posts on social media.

Always keep in mind that not all cycles are the same. History may not repeat itself, but it rhymes. 

What Comes Next

The last major altcoin season occurred in the first half of 2021. During that time, the top 100 altcoins outperformed Bitcoin and lowered its dominance from 61.9% to 40%.

Altcoins like BNB, Dogecoin, XRP, and Chainlink (LINK) hit new highs, with many outpacing Bitcoin for nearly five months. However, gains weren’t spread evenly. Altcoins tied to hot trends such as DeFi, Layer-1 blockchain, and Play-to-Earn (P2E) saw the most growth, while others lagged.

The market conditions now mirror those of 2021, suggesting Bitcoin’s dominance could drop to around 40% as altcoins continue to gain.

Credit: Tesfu Assefa

How to Prepare for the Altcoin Season

Traders need to prepare for the altcoin season. Here are some tools to monitor an altcoin season to avoid round tripping profits (or handing them back).

  • Altcoin Season Index: keep track of how altcoins are performing.
  • Sentiment analysis – monitor social media trends and investor sentiment to gauge potential shifts.

Investors should start building their thesis and identifying narratives that will fly as the altcoin season strengthens. The biggest crypto narratives to watch are as follows:

  • Real-World Assets
  • AI and decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN)
  • DEXs
  • Memecoins
  • Layer-1 and Layer-2 chains

Plan your entries and exits accordingly as nothing goes up forever. 

What Drives the 2024 Bull Run and Altcoin Season?

These factors are driving the 2024-25 bull run:

  • Institutional interest: The approval of spot Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs has triggered a surge in institutional investment and improved liquidity and credibility.
  • Change in monetary policies: The U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts have created a favorable environment for riskier assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.
  • Political factors and regulatory environment: The recent U.S. elections have sparked optimism among crypto investors, with hopes of pro-crypto policies under President Trump.
  • Seasonal trades: The fourth quarter has historically been bullish for cryptocurrencies, with investors accumulating in anticipation of year-end rallies.

Conclusion

The altcoin season is taking shape, with the foundation laid for a rally. The 2024-25 bull market will differ from previous ones, driven by a regulatory shift in the USA and the rise of institutional players through Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs.

Some altcoins have already hit new milestones: Bitcoin is hovering around $100,000, and the altcoin season index has poked its head onto the upper reaches of the graph. However, expect a lot of volatility, and as always, don’t put all your eggs in one basket.

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Quantum vs. Bitcoin: The New Crypto FUD?

Posted on by Werner

Introduction

If you’ve been in crypto for a while, you’ll know that some fresh new FUD is always around the corner. Now that Bitcoin has finally cracked that magical $100k milestone and the USA has a crypto-friendly government incoming, could quantum computing be the new bogeyman? 

Google’s New Math

On Monday, Google unveiled Willow, a quantum processor that completes certain calculations in five minutes. The same task would take today’s fastest supercomputer longer than the universe has existed. This leap in quantum computing has Bitcoin holders and other crypto investors concerned about the encryption that secures their digital fortunes, particularly the dormant wallets holding billions in early Bitcoin.

The numbers behind Willow tell a striking story. Traditional computers process information in bits – ones and zeros. Quantum computers use qubits, which can represent multiple states simultaneously. Willow’s 105 qubits might seem modest, but they’ve achieved something remarkable: stable error correction that improves exponentially as the system scales.

For cryptographers and Bitcoin developers, this matters a lot. Quantum computers with enough stable qubits could theoretically break the encryption that protects Bitcoin wallets. 

Google’s Quantum AI lead, Hartmut Neven, describes Willow’s achievement in almost mystical terms, suggesting the computation “occurs in many parallel universes.” Behind this dramatic language lies a practical breakthrough: the ability to maintain quantum states long enough to perform meaningful calculations.

A Numbers Game: Your Bitcoin Is (Probably) Safe

Kevin Rose, a former Google product manager, puts it bluntly: cracking Bitcoin’s current encryption standard would require 13 million qubits. Willow has 105. That’s like trying to breach a bank vault with a butter knife.

To generate addresses, Bitcoin takes a public key, and performs a cryptographic computation called hashing on it twice. Rose’s assurances are about the difficulty of computing a full public key from the Bitcoin address.

However, once the full public key is known, computing the private key that unlocks the money is a much easier quantum computation.

This leaves one corner of the Bitcoin network under genuine quantum risk. The oldest Bitcoin addresses used a simpler security format called P2PK, which left full public keys exposed on the blockchain. 

The distinction between P2PK and modern P2PKH (Pay to Public Key Hash) addresses marks a crucial security evolution. P2PKH addresses only expose their public keys when spending coins, giving them significant protection against quantum attacks. Even if quantum computers could break the encryption, they’d need to do so in the brief window between transaction broadcast and confirmation.

Satoshi’s Time Bomb

This vulnerability creates an extraordinary situation. Roughly one million Bitcoin – worth about $102 billion at current prices – sits in these early addresses. Many believe these coins belong to Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto. They haven’t moved in over a decade.

Some developers argue for preëmptive action: modifying Bitcoin’s code to freeze these vulnerable coins before quantum computers can crack them. It’s technically possible through a network fork. But others see this as heresy, violating Bitcoin’s core promise of immutability.

The technical debate centers on implementation methods. A soft fork could make specific UTXOs unspendable while maintaining backward compatibility. A hard fork would require network-wide consensus but could implement more comprehensive protections. Both approaches face significant political and philosophical hurdles within the Bitcoin community.

The Ethereum Answer

While Bitcoin debates, Ethereum makes moves. Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder, has outlined a straightforward quantum defense: a hard fork requiring all users to upgrade their security. No frozen funds, no philosophical crisis – just a mandatory update when quantum computers get close enough.

Researchers of post-quantum cryptography are developing new encryption algorithms that quantum computers can’t crack. Several cryptocurrencies are already testing these methods, preparing for a quantum-secure future.

The technical approaches vary: lattice-based cryptography, hash-based signatures, and multivariate cryptography each offer potential quantum resistance. Some projects combine multiple methods, creating layered defenses against both classical and quantum attacks.

Five Minutes vs. The Universe

Google’s claim about Willow’s five-minute calculation needs context. The chip solved a specific mathematical problem perfectly suited to quantum computing. Most computing tasks – including those involved in cryptocurrency mining and transactions – won’t benefit from this quantum hardware.

The problem Willow solved involves sampling from random quantum circuits. While impressive, this task was carefully chosen to demonstrate quantum supremacy. Breaking cryptocurrency encryption requires solving entirely different mathematical problems: factoring large numbers and computing discrete logarithms.

Google’s own quantum roadmap shows Willow reaching only milestone two of six. The path to 13 million stable qubits stretches far into the future. Yet quantum development has repeatedly outpaced predictions.

Credit: Tesfu Assefa

Beyond the Public Keys

Modern cryptocurrency security involves multiple layers. Even if quantum computers eventually crack public key encryption, they’ll face other barriers. Bitcoin’s proof-of-work system, hash functions, and network consensus mechanisms don’t rely solely on the algorithms quantum computers are good at cracking.

The cryptocurrency community has so far been pretty adaptable. When SHA-1 encryption showed weaknesses, Bitcoin developers had already moved to stronger alternatives. Similar foresight guides quantum defense planning.

Hash functions, particularly SHA-256 used in Bitcoin, show strong resistance to quantum attacks. Grover’s algorithm, a quantum method for searching unstructured databases, could theoretically speed up mining by finding hash collisions faster. But even this would only offer a quadratic speedup, requiring significant modifications to Bitcoin’s mining difficulty adjustment.

Technical Defenses Emerging

Cryptocurrency developers aren’t waiting for quantum computers to catch up. Teams across the ecosystem are implementing various defensive measures. Digital signature schemes like SPHINCS+ offer quantum resistance through hash-based signatures. Unlike current elliptic curve signatures, these methods rely on the security of hash functions, which better resist quantum attacks.

Some projects explore zero-knowledge proofs and other cryptographic primitives that maintain security even against quantum adversaries. These techniques could protect not just funds, but also transaction metadata and smart contract interactions.

Adapting the Future

Here’s the reality: quantum computing poses no immediate threat to cryptocurrency. But its steady advance demands attention. The solutions already exist in theory: they are post-quantum cryptography, network upgrades, and possibly even blockchain forks. The challenge lies in implementing them without disrupting the trillion-dollar cryptocurrency ecosystem.

The next decade will transform both quantum computing and cryptocurrency. Willow’s 105 qubits will seem quaint compared to future processors. Bitcoin’s security will evolve to match these advances. The real question isn’t whether cryptocurrency can survive quantum computing – it’s how effectively the technology will adapt.

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The Bitcoin Banana Zone 2025: How To Not Slip Up In Its Madness

Posted on by Werner

It’s December 2024, and all hell has broken loose in crypto markets, with everything from Bitcoin to meme coins to NFTs to AI agent coins to last-cycle “dino coins” like XRP ripping to the upside following Donald Trump’s election win which in 2025 will herald in the most crypto-friendly U.S. administration in history. 

With Bitcoin kissing $100k, the crypto market has entered what veteran traders call ‘the Banana Zone’, and everyone is losing their minds. Bitcoin keeps smashing through all-time highs. It had its biggest-ever one-month jump in November 2024 (a $26,000 jump), billionaires are scrambling to buy whatever Bitcoin they can find, and investment firms are desperately telling their clients to buy Bitcoin “urgently.” Even Jim Cramer has flipped pro-Bitcoin again. What can go wrong? Welcome to the wild end of 2024.

Remember though – this isn’t financial advice of any kind. When the Fear And Greed Index sits on 90 (‘Extreme Greed’), markets are overheated. Anything can happen, particularly in the Banana Zone. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Keep your head straight, don’t bet the farm, and enjoy watching history unfold.

What Is This ‘Banana Zone’ Thing?

Macro investor Raoul Pal came up with this term to describe those insane periods when Bitcoin’s price chart starts looking like a banana – it goes up almost vertically. But this isn’t just about the price going crazy. 

If you haven’t read his explanation on it, take ten minutes and read this post twice. And then once again. 

The Banana Zone is a cyclical market pattern observed since 2008, when global interest rates were reset to zero and debt maturities standardized to 3-4 years. This created a predictable macro cycle driven by global liquidity, visible in ISM data (published by the Institute for Supply Management). The cycle involves currency debasement through liquidity increases, which helps service debt rollovers and causes asset prices to rise.

Credit: LSEG Datastream

Growth assets, particularly tech and crypto, perform best during ‘Macro Summer and Fall’ periods. Crypto has outperformed tech significantly. It has grown at twice the internet’s historical rate, following Metcalfe’s Law adoption patterns. 

While the cycle is generally predictable, due to debt structure, current factors like elections and China’s foreign relations may influence the outcomes. The final leg’s exact structure remains uncertain, though the pattern is expected to continue.

Banana Zone in Practice

Just look at what’s happening: MicroStrategy just dropped another $2 billion to buy 27,200 Bitcoin. The over-the-counter trading desks, where the big players usually buy their Bitcoin, are running dry. Some traders are reporting there might be as little as 20,000-40,000 Bitcoin left available for large purchases. When you consider that Bitcoin ETFs have been buying roughly 100,000 Bitcoin in just the past few weeks, you start to understand why prices keep shooting up.

Bitcoin net ETF inflows (Credit: Dune analytics)

A Perfect Storm Has Hit

Several major factors have created the perfect conditions for this Banana Zone. 

The Bitcoin halving earlier this year cut the new supply in half, right when demand started going through the roof. China has started pumping trillions into their markets to fight off recession. Central banks worldwide are beginning to lower interest rates again. Everyone is looking for somewhere to put their money that might actually keep up with inflation.

Investment firms are waking up to Bitcoin in a big way. Bernstein, a major investment firm, literally told their clients to “urgently” get Bitcoin exposure. That’s not the kind of language Wall Street typically uses. When Wall Street starts sounding like crypto Twitter, you know something unusual is happening.

This Time Hits Different

Previous Bitcoin bull markets were driven mainly by retail investors and pure speculation. This time around, the grown-ups have given their blessing: BlackRock’s ETF announcement last year gave the thumbs-up to TradFi to get behind BTC. 

Major Wall Street firms are buying Bitcoin. Investment banks are creating crypto trading desks. Corporate treasuries are allocating serious money to Bitcoin. Even traditional banks are starting to offer crypto services to wealthy clients.

The supply squeeze is also more intense than ever before. Miners are holding onto their coins as their operations become more profitable with every price increase. Long-term holders aren’t selling. ETFs need to keep buying to meet demand. The available supply of Bitcoin is getting squeezed from all sides.

Warning Signs to Watch

The Banana Zone typically ends when the market reaches peak euphoria. Here are some classic warning signs to watch for as we move into 2025: your taxi driver starts giving you Bitcoin price predictions, people start quitting their jobs to become full-time crypto traders, everyone starts saying “this time is different.” When you see these signs, it might be time to start paying extra attention. Already seeing these signs? Well, it might be time to de-risk a little. After all, the key to riches is not just to make it, but to keep it. 

But before that happens, we could very well see some mind-bending price action. The combination of limited supply and increasing institutional demand could drive prices to levels that seem impossible right now. 

Credit: Tesfu Assefa

Don’t Slip in The Banana Zone

While watching the Banana Zone unfold is exciting, markets don’t go up forever. Every previous crypto bull market has ended with a significant pullback. The difference this time might be in how high we go before that happens, and how far we fall when it does.

The current Banana Zone could extend well into 2025, especially with all the institutional money flowing in and the supply getting more constrained by the day. But markets are unpredictable beasts. The best approach is to understand what’s happening and why, rather than trying to predict exactly how it will play out.

Pal says that 20 to 30% pullbacks are normal and to be expected, so it’s wise to be well prepared for these drawdowns and the pain that they’ll bring, in particular to altcoins.

One thing’s for certain: we’re living through a historic moment in financial markets. The Banana Zone of 2024-2025 is showing us what happens when an emerging asset class like Bitcoin starts to get mainstream acceptance right when its supply is getting squeezed. Whether you’re participating or just watching from the sidelines, this is going to be one hell of a show next year. If you hear the word WAGMI even in jest, run for the hills. 

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State of Web3 Gaming in Q3 2024

Posted on by Werner

Introduction

The crypto gaming industry in 2024 is evolving into a new form, in a transformation far from complete. That’s the message of a comprehensive new Q3 2024 report on GameFi. 

Game7’s report shows Web3 gaming is reshaping the global gaming landscape. Telegram is emerging as a launchpad for new titles, and Web2 gaming powerhouses are cautiously testing these waters. This shift puts pressures on traditional mobile platforms to adapt, while they grapple with restrictive policies and regulatory uncertainty. 

Here’s how the Web3 gaming ecosystem is growing in 2024, and how it is segueing into a potentially bumper 2025.

Web3 Gaming Ecosystem

The total gaming market cap peaked in early Q2 this year at around $40 billion, and has since halved, as hotter narratives like Bitcoin, AI and meme coins ate its share. 

This doesn’t mean Game Over for the crypto gaming sector – the report’s data shows positive signs. 

Blockchain ecosystems like Immutable and Arbitrum are thriving, driving rapid growth with innovative offerings, and attracting developers from rival platforms. While game announcements dipped 36% from 2023, fewer projects abandoned development, showing a maturing ecosystem. 

Indie creators dominated: they drove over 90% of releases, favoring the RPG, casual, and action genres. Meanwhile, platforms like Epic Games Store embraced Web3, hinting at gaming’s bold new chapter amid ongoing challenges with integration and adoption.

Geographically, the Asia-Pacific region leads Web3 game development, accounting for nearly 40% of new titles, followed by North America at 35%. The USA contributes 27% of teams, with South Korea and Singapore following. 

Genre trends remained stable: RPGs, casual, and action games top the charts as developers refine Web3 integration within the old familiars before any creative daring.

Telegram Reshapes Web3 Gaming

In addition to the rise of crypto trading bots on Telegram, the messaging app emerged as a surprising force in Web3 gaming in 2024. Telegram has carved a niche as a preferred platform for launching Web3 games, with 21% of new titles choosing it as their home. Distribution trends for new Web3 games largely followed patterns from 2023, but Telegram’s rise is a new turning point, as this graph shows –

Rise of Web3 Gaming on Telegram (Credit: Game7 Research)

What makes Telegram so appealing? Simplicity. Its massive user base (950 million active monthly users) and frictionless in-app experience sidestep the challenges of traditional app stores like Apple’s and Google’s. 

To illustrate the discontent game developers have with Big Tech’s app stores, Epic Games – the parent company of Fortnite – sued Google and Samsung for blocking competition. For developers like these, Telegram answers the call for a way to distribute games without high store fees or restrictive NFT policies. 

However, Telegram’s rise faces hurdles. Discoverability on the platform is still a challenge, and concerns linger about user engagement metrics and the lack of robust Web3 development tools. Telegram has also been in the crosshairs of authorities; its founder Pavel Durov was arrested in France over encryption issues. This pushed Telegram to update its rules.  

Despite this, many game publishers are crafting Telegram strategies – not for full-fledged titles, but as a complementary user-acquisition stream.

Telegram’s success could also disrupt the status quo in mobile distribution. Its integration of blockchain gaming within a messaging app shows how traditional channels might adapt, or risk being left behind.

Credit: Tesfu Assefa

Traditional Gaming Giants Enter Web3

Traditional gaming platforms are beginning to tiptoe into Web3 territory, blending innovation with caution. The Epic Games Store (EGS) has taken a leading role, adding 85 new Web3 titles in the past year. While it lacks dedicated Web3 tools, its open-minded content policies have made it a trusted partner for blockchain projects.

Quarterly Web3 Game Listings on Epic Games Store (Credit: Game7 Research)

EGS is also expanding its global presence, launching on Android and EU iOS in 2024. Though its mobile stores don’t yet welcome third-party Web3 games, its pro-Web3 stance on PC keeps it a platform to watch. Meanwhile, Steam holds firm on its controversial Web3 restrictions. Still, savvy developers are finding workarounds by releasing modified versions of their games to leverage Steam’s massive market reach.

Consoles are also testing the Web3 waters. Off the Grid by Gunzilla Games made waves as the first Web3 game to debut on consoles. By separating blockchain features from core gameplay, it hints at a future where platforms like Microsoft and Sony may cautiously embrace this new frontier. As policies evolve, Web3 teams could gain access to the vast console audience, reshaping gaming as we know it.

Key Blockchain Stats

The blockchain gaming ecosystem grew rapidly in 2024, with 105 blockchain networks were announced that can support gaming – a 20% increase from the previous year. Of these, 64% were designed specifically for gaming, reflecting the rising developer interest in tailored blockchain solutions.

Gaming-Specific Blockchains Are on the Rise (Credit: Game7 Research)

A major shift is happening toward Layer-2 and Layer-3 networks. L3 solutions, which only gained traction in 2023, accounted for 43% of new gaming blockchains this year, thanks to their customizable environments. L2s followed closely, making up 34% of the new entries. Though Layer-1 (L1) networks still host 66% of active games, most 2024 launches embraced L2 or L3 solutions for better scalability and gaming-specific features.

Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) continues to dominate as the go-to smart contract environment. Despite rising competition from ecosystems like Solana and Sui, developers are hesitant to leave the EVM due to its mature tools and lower switching costs. For now, EVM remains the backbone of blockchain gaming innovation.

Funding and Tokens

Web3 gaming funding in 2024 held steady, matching 2023 levels. Investors focused on content over infrastructure. Here again the same genres account for most of the market share: action, RPG, and casual games. Gaming chains and engagement platforms also attracted attention, but cautious optimism prevailed as investors awaited the next Axie Infinity moment.

Meanwhile, gaming token launches skyrocketed, up 200% from the previous year. By Q3, 74% of these launches were tied to game titles, reflecting a clear shift toward monetizing gameplay. The industry remains conservative, but the surge in tokens shows a drive for in-game economies and blockchain-powered experiences.

As Web3 wars intensify, gaming Dapps lost market value in the past year. The market cap of top gaming coins reached $22.5 billion in November 2024.

Regulatory Landscape

Web3 gaming projects face a complex regulatory landscape in the USA, dominated by the SEC and CFTC. With the election of crypto-friendly Donald Trump these regulations might finally be clarified.

Shifts in the U.S. political climate suggest the possibility of a more collaborative regulatory approach. Many projects are adapting by designing tokens with utility-focused mechanics, aligning more closely with traditional gaming models. While some delays in token launches persist, developers are finding ways to integrate blockchain elements into gameplay, balancing innovation with compliance.

Conclusion

Web3 gaming in 2024 is evolving, driven by innovation, indie creativity, and platforms like Telegram. Developers are refining blockchain integration while navigating regulatory and technical hurdles. Traditional platforms are slowly adapting, hinting at a broader shift to Web3. Challenges remain, but the foundation for growth is strong.

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How Will President Trump Impact AI and Crypto Projects in 2025?

Posted on by Werner

Introduction

Donald Trump will be back in the White House in 2025, bringing with him possibly a more business-friendly approach to new digital technology sectors like AI and crypto. His ally Elon Musk has repeatedly warned against AI overreach which could end mankind, but will Trump heed these warnings and suppress AI? Or follow the ideology that deregulation leads to economic growth? Only time will tell. 

Trump is pro-business, and that provides good negotiating ground with AI giants like OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft as they try to find the right regulatory frameworks to contain the exponentially evolving machine-learning sector. 

Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election is sure to have significant implications for the development and regulation of artificial intelligence (AI) and cryptocurrency-related AI projects. While this could enhance the competitive position of U.S. tech firms, it also raises significant concerns about ethical standards, international cooperation, and the trajectory of technological growth. 

The implications of these changes will be felt globally, as nations navigate the complexities of AI governance – and AI competition – in an increasingly interconnected world.

Here’s an analysis of the biggest potential impacts on AI that we might see in 2025:

The Ideology of Deregulation 

Trump has indicated plans to repeal the Biden administration’s executive order on AI, which aimed to implement stricter regulations and oversight on AI technologies. His policy is to promote a less regulated environment, allowing companies greater freedom to develop and deploy AI technologies without governmental oversight. 

The tech industry, particularly AI companies and startups, may welcome this less restrictive environment. It could potentially accelerate the development and deployment of AI technologies without the constraints of extensive governmental oversight. This approach might foster rapid innovation and allow U.S. companies to maintain a competitive edge in the global AI race.

Trump’s approach is likely to be welcomed by major tech companies that advocate for a lighter regulatory touch. Many in the industry argue that stringent regulations can stifle innovation and their competitiveness. However, companies can’t be relied on to self-regulate: they will surely prioritize profit over ethical considerations.

This is part of Trump’s broad economic agenda to reduce regulations on all businesses – not just digital. It could potentially lead to rapid advancements in AI capabilities – or to rapid AI catastrophe!

Potential Risks of Deregulation

The deregulatory approach raises concerns about safety, ethics, and accountability in AI development. Experts warn that without adequate regulatory frameworks, the risks associated with AI – such as bias, misinformation, and privacy violations – could escalate. The lack of robust oversight may hinder efforts to establish ethical standards and best practices in AI development, which are crucial for addressing the technology’s societal impacts.

Advocates of deregulation say it will spur innovation, however nothing but regulation can establish the ethical standards and best practices needed to address AI’s societal impacts.

Influence over Global Standards

Trump’s deregulatory policies – and his poor reputation internationally – do not bode well for the country’s ability to influence international norms and regulations governing AI. Historically, the USA shaped global AI standards, simply because it is home to the leading tech firms and research institutions: Google, Microsoft, MIT, etc. Trump’s deregulatory policies could diminish the USA’s ability to influence international norms and regulations governing AI. As countries like China continue to advance their AI capabilities, a weak regulatory landscape in the USA might hinder its competitive edge.

Geopolitical Tensions

Trump’s administration has signalled its intention to continue and expand Biden’s protectionist measures. The USA could attempt tighter export controls on AI technologies, particularly to China. Such actions could create barriers to global cooperation in AI development and governance, exacerbating geopolitical tensions, and limiting the USA’s ability to lead global discussions on responsible AI use.

Cryptocurrency and AI Projects

Trump’s election victory is seen as potentially beneficial for cryptocurrency-related AI projects. His administration is likely to foster an environment that encourages innovation and investment in blockchain technologies and digital currencies. This could be advantageous for startups looking to develop new crypto solutions without heavy regulatory scrutiny.

The cryptocurrency market has already shown a positive response to Trump’s victory, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high. This surge reflects the market’s anticipation of a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment under Trump’s leadership.

However, the lack of regulation could also lead to increased volatility in the cryptocurrency markets. A deregulated environment may attract speculative investments, but could also expose investors to higher risks associated with fraud and market manipulation.

Uncertainty for Innovators

The anticipated changes in regulation could introduce uncertainty for businesses involved in AI development. Companies might face challenges maintaining compliance with rapidly shifting regulations, and this could impact investment decisions and strategic planning. The lack of clear guidelines may deter some innovators from pursuing ambitious projects due to fears of potential backlash or future regulatory changes.

National Security and Defense AI

In the realm of defense and national security, Trump’s administration might pursue a less stringent regulatory environment for AI development related to military technologies. This could lead to closer relationships between the government and private organizations involved in developing defense-related AI. However, this approach might also diminish prospects for international cooperation on defense-related AI governance, potentially exacerbating global tensions in military technology development.

Economic Impact

Trump’s policies are expected to prioritize private sector gains in AI development. This approach might help companies move fast without adequate safeguards! While this could spur economic growth and innovation in the short term, it raises concerns about long-term consequences regarding consumer safety and privacy – as well as catastrophic AI risk.

Credit: Tesfu Assefa

Workforce and Education

The rapid advancement of AI under a deregulated environment could have significant implications for the workforce. It might create new job opportunities in the tech sector, but accelerate job displacement in other industries. Trump’s administration will need to address these challenges, potentially through workforce retraining programs and education initiatives focused on AI and related technologies.

Global Competitiveness

Trump’s approach aims to keep the USA ahead of other regions, particularly Europe and China, in AI development. The administration hopes that reducing regulatory barriers will spur domestic innovation and give the country a competitive edge over more regulated countries. However, this strategy also risks widening the gap between the USA and other nations in terms of AI governance and ethical standards.

Conclusion

Donald Trump’s victory signals a significant shift in the U.S. approach to AI and crypto-related AI projects. The anticipated deregulation is likely to spur rapid innovation and investment in these sectors. However, this may come at the cost of safety, ethics, and long-term societal impacts.

The success of this approach will depend on how well the administration can balance the drive for innovation with necessary safeguards. It will also require careful navigation of international relations, particularly in managing technology transfers and global AI governance.

As the AI landscape mutates under Trump’s leadership, the tech industry, policymakers, and the public will need to remain vigilant. They must work to ensure that the benefits of AI advancement are realized, while mitigating potential risks and ethical concerns. The coming years will be crucial in shaping the future of AI and its impact on society, both in the USA and globally.

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When Will Bitcoin Hit $100K?

Posted on by Werner

Introduction

Bitcoin’s hit to $99,500 today, tantalizing crypto price watchers. The king of crypto attracts renewed attention from retail and institutional investors as it flirts with $100,000. 

The recent U.S. presidential election delivered a Republican Senate majority and a Trump presidency, signaling the possibility of more relaxed crypto regulations. Just over six months ago, it was unthinkable that Bitcoin could hit $100K, despite what all those laser eyes would have you believe. Now, Bitcoin’s path to $100,000 feels inevitable. The only real question is: when will it happen? 

Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice of any kind. 

Bitcoin Catalysts for the Rally to $100,000

The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price marks a turning point in the cryptocurrency market. Following Trump’s stunning election victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, Bitcoin has rallied non-stop, and the news that other pro-Bitcoiners like Elon Musk and RFK will be in Trump’s government hasn’t hurt. This surge highlights the potential for November to remain a historically strong month for Bitcoin, as past data shows consistent upward trends during this period. 

The convergence of political, institutional, and retail factors is fueling optimism for Bitcoin to break the $100k barrier.

Bitcoin set a new all-time high above $94K on November  19 (Credit: CoinMarketCap)

Crypto-Friendly Policies

A key catalyst has been Trump’s promise to deliver regulatory clarity for cryptocurrencies. His pro-crypto stance is reflected in potential cabinet appointments, such as Summer Mersinger as a crypto-friendly CFTC chair. The wind is finally in crypto’s favor, with Cardano’s Charles Hoskinson set to help shape crypto policy in the USA.

Gary Gensler, the current U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is widely seen as anti-crypto. It is hard to argue with this opinion: Gensler has sued and fined hundreds of crypto firms including Kraken, Coinbase, and Ripple. Trump said earlier this year – at Bitcoin Nashville – that he would fire Gensler on day one, and rumors are now that ‘GG’ will resign and be replaced by Brian Brooks, a former Acting Comptroller and CEO of Binance USA, which would be an extremely factor. 

Trump is promising to shake things up by aligning with a celebrity team that consists of crypto favorite Elon Musk – who will lead the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Vivek Ramaswamy, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. who revealed buying 21 Bitcoins, including three for each of his children. This is one-millionth of BTC’s hard cap of 21 million coins.

The creation of the Department of Government Efficiency has also added momentum. While primarily aimed at cutting government spending and improving, its acronym is a nod to Dogecoin. This has sparked excitement among Bitcoin enthusiasts and bolsters the narrative that crypto is becoming a core part of governmental strategies, encouraging wider adoption and investment.

Bitcoin ETFs and Institutional Capital

Institutional interest has reached high levels, with spot Bitcoin ETF inflows soaring. Major asset managers are racing to secure Bitcoin ETFs, signaling their belief in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (Credit: TheBlock)

Retail investors are also playing a significant role in the rally. Data shows retail interest in Bitcoin has hit a 52-month high, driving increased trading volumes. Sidelined investors are expected to ‘FOMO in’, driving Bitcoin’s price higher.

Bitcoin Halving

The 2024 Bitcoin halving event brought relief and excitement to investors. It is widely believed that it takes Bitcoin at least six months to surge after the halving event. The event, which cuts the supply of new coins in half, is a simple lesson in economics. As the supply decreases and demand rises, prices naturally go up.  

Will Bitcoin Reach $100k in 2024? What Experts Say

Bitcoin’s future just got a serious upgrade. Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, is leading the charge. Kendrick predicts Bitcoin could hit $125,000 by the end of 2024 and $200,000 by late 2025. What’s fueling his optimism? Trump’s bold pro-crypto promises.

Trump plans to clean up the system by dismissing SEC chair Gary Gensler, whose tough stance has cost crypto firms millions in fines. I bet my last satoshi that no crypto fan wants to see Gensler in charge of the SEC given the scale of damage he has done to the crypto industry. He won’t be missed.

“We’ve gone from a regulatory landscape under Biden that was largely adversarial, to one that actively supports the industry,” said Kendrick.

Ryan Lee of Bitget Research expects Bitcoin to touch the $100,000 mark by the end of November.

In Lee’s words, “If history repeats itself, Bitcoin’s projected growth could take it well above $100,000 by month-end,” Lee remarked. Coinshares’ head of research James Butterfly claims that $100,000 by the end of the year “doesn’t sound unreasonable” as it only accounts for 10% of gold’s market cap. Crypto bros see Bitcoin as the ‘digital gold’.

Gabriele Giancola, the CEO of Qiibee says Trump’s re-election could propel BTC to $100,000 in 2024.

“Bitcoin’s performance historically aligns with significant geopolitical and economic events, and the aftermath of the U.S. election could see BTC reaching $100,000 this year or shortly after a potential Trump reelection.”

Polymarket, a crypto betting site that outsmarted the majority of mainstream media by predicting a Trump win, has a 71% chance of Bitcoin hitting $100k by year-end.

A Dash of Skepticism

Not all experts and analysts share this excitement. Some are approaching Bitcoin’s price discovery with a dose of caution. Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of the crypto intelligence platform CryptoQuant is taking the caution route. According to Ju, Bitcoin will tumble to nearly $59,000 at the end of the year.

Other analysts believe $100,000 is within sight but not in 2024. Bitfinex’s Head of Derivatives Jag Kooner expects Bitcoin to hit the $100k milestone on Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025.

As Bitcoin approaches $100,000, where are we in the four seasons of crypto seven months after the halving?

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s unstoppable journey to $100k makes for a powerful narrative of shifting tides in politics, economics, and investor sentiment. With Trump’s promised pro-crypto policies, a wave of institutional interest, and the ever-powerful force of retail FOMO, the stage is set for Bitcoin to make history. 

Whether it happens this week, this year or next, one thing is clear: the excitement, innovation, and potential surrounding Bitcoin are unstoppable. The $100K milestone is somewhere in the near future.

We are witnessing history in the making.

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Cardano Founder to Help Shape U.S. Crypto Policy

Posted on by Werner

Introduction

Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano and Input Output (IOHK), is stepping into a significant role in shaping cryptocurrency policy in the United States. Hoskinson announced this development on Twitter on November 9, which comes at a critical time for the industry, at the election of pro-crypto presidential candidate Donald Trump over Kamala Harris.

Hoskinson underscored the need for regulatory clarity to move the crypto industry forward and undo the damage that has been done over the years.

The Timing is Critical

Hoskinson’s initiative coincides with a unique political landscape. The crypto industry splashed more than $100 million to help elect pro-crypto candidates. It was an election where crypto voters found their voice in order to have their industry heard. In the end, the Republican party won the election ‘trifecta’, gaining control of the presidency, Senate, and House of Representatives. 

Hoskinson calls it the ‘best opportunity’ to influence crypto policy. President Trump campaigned on promises of regulatory clarity for cryptocurrencies, and the new administration seems to be playing ball to deliver on these commitments.

The Republican’s clean sweep aligns with the crypto industry’s need for a supportive regulatory environment. With no clear regulations, many crypto companies suffered at the hands of the U.S. Securities and Exchanges Commission (SEC).

The Importance of Regulatory Clarity

The lack of clear regulations has been a longstanding issue for the crypto industry in the USA. Over the years, companies like Ripple, Kraken and Coinbase have faced significant challenges, such as prolonged legal battles with the SEC, which Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse claims has stifled innovation. 

Due to the crackdown and regulatory uncertainty, several U.S. crypto companies threatened to relocate overseas. However, the tide is turning in the hope that regulatory clarity will bring more developers and investors to the industry and to the USA. 

The Hoskinson’s Vision

Hoskinson declared, “We have to do this, and we have to get it done.” 

His vision includes a policy office in Washington, D.C., staffed by experts dedicated to working with lawmakers and administration officials. The goal is a bipartisan group that fosters innovation while addressing sensible regulatory concerns.

This initiative is expected to provide the clarity needed for crypto businesses to thrive without fear of regulatory retaliation. Hoskinson wants to help create a transparent framework that defines what constitutes a security versus a commodity.

Credit: Tesfu Assefa

Pro-Crypto U.S. Policy is a Watershed Moment

The inclusion of crypto figureheads in the new Trump administration is truly a transformative moment for the entire industry. By advocating for regulations crafted by the crypto community, Hoskinson seeks to ensure that the U.S. remains a global leader in blockchain innovation. He has openly criticized the influence of large financial entities like BlackRock on policy-making, emphasizing the need for industry-driven solutions.

Hoskinson sees this as an opportunity to reverse the damage caused by the SEC due to regulatory overreach. The crypto industry has found a powerful friend in Trump and is now taking the fight to the SEC. 

On the campaign trail, specifically at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference, Trump proposed a strategic BTC reserve for the USA and pledged crypto-friendly reforms. The SEC is silent on Trump’s BTC reserve proposal.

According to Fox Business, 18 states are suing the SEC and its five commissioners for unfair prosecution of U.S. crypto companies. The SEC has taken action against hundreds of crypto firms and individuals. You can view them here.

If successful, the pro-crypto U.S. policy could set a precedent for how blockchain companies engage with governments worldwide. This approach not only enhances the legitimacy of the industry but also paves the way for the broader adoption of decentralized technologies​. The days of the USA trying to kill crypto seem to be over.

Impact on the Market

The announcement has already had a tangible impact. Cardano’s ADA token surged massively following the news, reaching a seven-month high. This price movement reflects growing investor confidence in the potential alignment of U.S. regulations with the needs of the crypto industry. Market participants are optimistic that clear rules will reduce uncertainty and encourage institutional adoption of blockchain technologies​.

Hoskinson’s move also positions Cardano as a leader in bridging the gap between technological innovation and policy. By taking an active role in shaping regulations, Hoskinson aims to foster an environment where decentralized platforms can coexist with traditional financial systems.

Wrapping Up

Hoskinson’s decision to take an active role in shaping U.S. crypto policy is a bold step forward for the industry:

  • With clear regulations, the blockchain space can unlock its full potential, fostering innovation and economic opportunity. 
  • With industry experts helping shape policy, the crypto space has the best shot to be where it wants to be.

The true impact of these shifts will be known soon.

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