Top New 2025 L1 Chains: Monad, Berachain and HyperLiquid

The blockchain trilemma states that out of scalability, security, and decentralization, you can only have two. This has given rise to new competing layer-1 chains for different purposes. Let’s look at new layer-1 protocols that are gearing up for launch, each of which promises unique features, improved performance, and a fresh contribution to the nascent blockchain space.

Monad and Berachain’s are coming soon, and Hyperliquid started recently – let’s investigate what they mean for the future of blockchain technology.

Berachain: Layer-1 Chain with Proof of Liquidity

Key features:

  • Unique Proof-of-Liquidity Consensus
  • Compatibility with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM)
  • Modular design
  • Tri-token system

What is Berachain?

Berachain is an Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) compatible chain, making it a powerful tool for creating applications or easily migrating them from Ethereum. Due to its compatibility with ERC standards, Berachain lets developers utilize Ethereum-based tools and services. For developers, this simplifies the creation and deployment of dApps.

Berachain has a modular design built on the ‘Cosmos SDK’. This is a key factor in its mission to solve the issue of liquidity fragmentation. Liquidity fragmentation has dogged other projects that have tried to exchange assets across different blockchains. Additionally, Berachain uses Proof-of-Liquidity (PoL), a unique consensus model for securing the network and optimizing liquidity. 

Central to Berachain’s architecture is the tri-token system of its economic and governance structure. The three tokens are BERA (for transactions), BGT (a governance token), and HONEY (a US-dollar-pegged stablecoin).

This model incentivizes liquidity provision, and allows for decentralized governance, where BGT holders can participate in decision-making.

In a nutshell, Berachain is positioning itself as a scalable, interoperable, and developer-friendly platform for high liquidity and for cross-chain dApps.

Why is Berachain Getting Hyped Up?

Berachain is quickly gaining attention due to its unique Proof-of-Liquidity (PoL) consensus mechanism. This innovation is what sets it apart from other blockchains.

Its evolution adds to its appeal. It started as Bit Bears, an NFT platform created by three pseudonymous founders, and the platform’s NFT collections became very successful. This resulted in a growing community, whose influence gave Bit Bears the momentum to launch a standalone layer-1 platform. 

The project has also attracted airdrop farmers who are closely following its development to capitalize on potential airdrops. 

Who Invested in Berachain?

Berachain has attracted significant investment from several venture capital firms and individual investors. It has raised over $142 million in several funding rounds. 

It raised $42 million in April 2023 in a private token round led by Polychain Capital with participation from Hack VC, Robot Ventures, and Shima Capital. It later received $100 million in series B funding co-led by Framework Ventures and Brevan Howard Abu Dhabi branch.

Credit: X (Twitter)

Monad: High Throughput, Low Fees

Key Features:

  • Parallel execution processes multiple transactions simultaneously
  • Deferred execution for improved efficiency
  • ‘MonadBFT’ – an advanced consensus algorithm that ensures fast and secure agreement among nodes
  • ‘MonadDB’ – a specialized database for faster transactions.

Monad is a new blockchain designed to make dApps faster and more efficient. It employs a parallel execution model that allows multiple transactions to be processed simultaneously, significantly increasing throughput compared to traditional blockchains. Thanks to this parallel execution, Monad is highly scalable, ensuring that the network can grow without slowing down. Monad is co-founded by ex-Jump Capital high frequency trader (HFT) Keone Hon.

This enables Monad to handle up to 10,000 transactions per second (tps) with a block time of one second. With its deferred execution, Monad separates the confirmation of transactions from their execution. This helps reduce the waiting times while improving efficiency. It uses a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism.

Monad is built for developers with tools and features that make it easy to build and launch apps. The layer-1 network aims to solve traditional blockchain challenges such as slow speeds and high costs, while providing a simple and user-friendly experience. It is highly cost-effective, with transaction fees of less than 1 cent.

Monad Hype

Monad is generating hype due to a high throughput of 10,000 tps and cheap transactions. For perspective, Solana’s true tps ranges between 500 and 1,000.

The crypto community is highly anticipating Monad’s airdrop. Although it is meant to reward early adopters, airdrop hunters use it to earn free money.

Not everyone is convinced. DeFi god Andre Cronje published this scathing tweet recently:

Who are Monad’s Investors?

Monad has raised at least $244 million in various funding rounds. In April 2024, Monad Labs announced a $225 million raise in a round led by Paradigm. Other investors include Coinbase Ventures, Electric Capital, and Greenoaks.

Credit: CryptoRank

Hyperliquid: Blockchain or DEX?

Key Features:

  • High throughput and low slippage
  • Cost-efficiency
  • HyperBFT consensus mechanism for low latency and high security

Hyperliquid is an advanced layer-1 blockchain built specifically to improve decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and to lower slippage. It offers low fees, fast transaction speeds (with block confirmations under one second), and advanced trading features similar to centralized exchanges.

It uses a custom consensus mechanism called HyperBFT. This helps transactions process quickly and securely, while enabling deep liquidity and efficient order matching. 

One of Hyperliquid’s key features is its decentralized perpetual exchange; this is designed to allow users to trade perpetual futures directly on its blockchain without paying gas fees. This reduces costs and boosts transaction speed. 

Hyperliquid generated its hype through innovative features and advanced options that are not available on other DEXs. Thanks to the successful DEX of the same name, Hyperliquid found its way to the spotlight thanks to its successful HYPE token airdrop to 94,000 users, each getting an average allocation worth $45,000.

Credit: CoinGecko

Who are Hyperliquid’s Investors?

Hyperliquid took a different route, opting to be self-funded to maintain its independence and avoid the influence of external backers. 

The project was founded by two Harvard classmates: Jeff Yan and Illiensinc. The unexpected collapse of FTX in late 2022 gave them an unexpected boost and their future is bright.

Wrapping Up

Monad, Berachain, and Hyperliquid are new introductions to the growing layer-1 network space. They aim to address scalability, security, and decentralization. Monad and Berachain are backed by a war chest of financial backing while Hyperliquid is riding high on self-funding. 

Will they eat the lunch of the established layer-1 blockchain network? Only time will tell.

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Top Altcoin Charts to Watch in 2025

Introduction

Cryptocurrency markets change quickly, so it is important for investors to monitor key metrics that show market trends, performance, and sentiment. This two-part series shares 20 charts every crypto trader should know. 

In Part 1, we explored critical Bitcoin charts to help investors understand the bigger picture. Now, in Part 2, we turn our attention to altcoin charts, diving deeper into metrics that reveal the performance and potential of altcoins. Whether you’re tracking DeFi activity, NFT adoption, or market sentiment, these charts provide valuable insights to navigate the ever-changing crypto landscape.

Let’s explore ten essential altcoin charts every trader should follow!

Altcoin Charts

These charts provide essential data to understand altcoins’ market position, performance, and future trends.

1. Top Altcoin Market Capitalization

Credit: TradingView and CoinMarketCap

The market capitalization of top altcoins measures the total value of circulating non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA). A rising market cap signals growing investor confidence, often due to positive upgrades or increased adoption. For example, Ethereum’s Shanghai upgrade boosted demand as stakers could withdraw and re-stake more efficiently.

This chart helps traders:

  • Spot ecosystem shifts: See which altcoins lead during bullish phases.
  • Identify market risks: Sharp drops may indicate regulatory concerns or project issues.

Tracking these data helps investors understand capital flows and recognize potential trading opportunities.

2. Ethereum Gas Tracker

Credit: Blockchain.com, Etherscan, and Dune Analytics

The chart of Ethereum gas fees tracks the average transaction fees on the network, offering insight into network demand. Spikes in fees signal network congestion, and often happen when DeFi activity surges. For example, gas fees skyrocketed during popular NFT drops.

High fees can prompt users to explore alternatives like Arbitrum or Optimism, which offer lower-cost transactions.

This chart helps traders plan their transactions and spot trends indicating when the network is under heavy load.

3. DeFi lending/borrowing Volume Chart

Credit: DeFi Llama
Credit: CoinGecko

The chart of DeFi lending/borrowing tracks the total value of the assets that are lent and borrowed across decentralized finance protocols. When borrowing volumes rise, it can indicate increased market speculation that drives liquidity demand, like during bull runs when traders take leveraged positions. Conversely, a drop in borrowing suggests caution, with investors retreating to stable assets.

This chart helps traders assess market sentiment and shifts in DeFi activity. Platforms like Aave and Compound often reflect these trends, signaling key turning points in market confidence.

4. Layer-2 TVL chart

Credit: L2Beat

The Layer 2 TVL chart monitors the Total Value Locked (TVL) in Ethereum’s layer-2 solutions, such as Arbitrum and Optimism. Rising TVL highlights growing adoption of these networks for cheaper and faster transactions, often driven by demand from DeFi, gaming, and NFT projects. For instance, Arbitrum saw a TVL surge in 2023 due to increased liquidity in its DeFi ecosystem. 

These metrics are essential for understanding user migration from Ethereum’s mainnet to Layer 2s, which can boost altcoin prices associated with the networks.

Credit: Tesfu Assefa

5. NFT marketplace volume by blockchain

Credit: DappRadar and OpenSea Analytic

The NFT marketplace volume chart tracks trading activity across blockchains like Ethereum, Solana, and Polygon. High trading volumes often signal strong demand for NFTs, indicating where the action is in the underlying altcoin ecosystem. A rise in activity on alternative chains could mean they’re gaining adoption over Ethereum in specific niches. For example, Ethereum dominates the NFT market, but Solana and Polygon have gained traction due to lower fees and faster transactions, according to NFTScan.

6. DeFiLlama narratives tracker

Credit: DeFiLlama

The DeFiLlama narratives tracker highlights trending themes and sectors in the cryptocurrency market, such as liquid staking, Layer 2 adoption, or real-world assets (RWAs). By aggregating data from DeFi protocols, this tool helps investors spot emerging narratives that drive market activity and influence altcoin performance.

For example, during the rise of liquid staking platforms like Lido, the tracker showed increased capital flow, signaling a key opportunity for altcoin growth. Traders can use this tool to align their strategies with market trends and identify early movers in the DeFi ecosystem.

7. Social media sentiment analysis

Credit: LunarCrush

The social media sentiment analysis chart tracks discussions and emotions surrounding cryptocurrencies on platforms like Twitter, Reddit, and Telegram. Positive sentiment often indicates growing interest, while negative sentiment may signal caution or fear among traders.

For example, a surge in mentions of altcoins like Solana or Polygon during major announcements can reflect community excitement and potential price movements. Conversely, rising negative sentiment could foreshadow selling pressure.

This chart helps traders understand market mood, and identify when hype or skepticism could influence price trends. Analyzing sentiment alongside other metrics provides a broader view of market dynamics.

8. Wallet activity tracker

Credit: Cielo.finance

The wallet activity tracker monitors what’s going on in blockchain wallets. This could be things like large transactions, active addresses, and changes in wallet balances. An uptick in wallet activity often reflects growing interest or significant market moves. For instance, spikes in Ethereum wallet activity during DeFi booms indicated increasing participation in staking and trading.

Sudden large transfers from whale wallets to exchanges can signal potential sell-offs, while rising balances in non-custodial wallets suggest accumulation.

This tool helps investors track shifts in market dynamics, offering early signals for price changes.

9. Staking participation rate by altcoin

Credit: Staking Rewards

The staking participation rate measures the percentage of an altcoin’s total supply that is locked in staking. This can be viewed as a measure of long-term confidence in the network. Coins like Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL) rely on staking to secure their Proof-of-Stake (PoS) networks.

A higher staking rate indicates trust in the network’s future, because it means stakers are locking their assets to earn rewards, thereby supporting network stability. For example, Ethereum’s transition to PoS boosted its staking participation, reflecting optimism about its scalability and growth.

This metric is a critical indicator for investors evaluating the health and long-term potential of altcoin ecosystems.

10. Meme coin market cap chart

This CoinMarketCap chart helps investors understand speculative trends and gauge market phases where meme coins thrive.

Credit: CoinMarketCap

The chart of meme coin market cap tracks the total value of popular coins like Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Pepe (PEPE), as well as lesser-known ones. Meme coins often see spikes in market cap during bullish phases, fueled by community hype, social media trends, or celebrity endorsements.

For example, Dogecoin’s surge during Elon Musk’s tweets showcased how sentiment can drive speculative activity. Rising meme coin dominance reflects high-risk appetite among traders, while declines suggest a shift toward more serious assets.

Conclusion

There are a myriad of charts to steer you through the altcoin markets. These ten examples, along with the Top Ten Bitcoin charts in part 1, will help you keep your bearings in these stormy seas. Godspeed cryptonauts!

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Crime Report: Illicit trades on-chain shot up in 2024

The cryptocurrency industry is becoming more mainstream than ever. More dumb money floods in with every bull cycle – and cybercriminals lick their lips. Legitimate adoption brings an increase in illicit activities, with threats ranging from international security issues to consumer protection concerns.

According to a new Chainalysis 2025 report, on-chain illicit activity has become more diverse, with some actors using crypto primarily for money laundering imported from off-chain.

Donald Trump’s questionable $TRUMP and $MELANIA meme coins have raised billions of dollars in market cap, and concerns about ethics and regulation. Investors should be more vigilant than ever with what they buy and how they interact with crypto. 

2024 Crypto Crime in Numbers: How Big Was It?

The criminal proceeds received by illicit cryptocurrency addresses in 2024 is estimated at $41 billion. This is down from previous years, so should we celebrate? Chainalysis noted that the number will go up as more illicit addresses are identified, pushing the final total above $51 billion. 

For comparison, the 2023 estimate was initially at $24.2 billion before ballooning to $46.1 billion. The report excludes revenue from non-native crypto crimes.

Credit: Chainalysis

The rise in cryptocurrency value sent to illicit addresses from 2020 to 2024 shows that bad actors are upgrading their tactics. Yet the share of all crypto transaction volume that can be linked to illicit activities fell to 0.14% in 2024, from 0.7% in 2020.

Credit: Chainalysis

Which Assets Were Widely Used in Illicit Activities in 2024?

There has been a significant shift in the types of cryptocurrencies involved in illicit activities, marking a clear departure from Bitcoin’s dominance. Bitcoin was the currency of choice for cybercriminals in 2020, accounting for nearly three-quarters of all illicit transactions. This was simply due to its high liquidity and recognition at the time.

Other assets gained market share and the situation changed. Stablecoins account for more than six out of ten illicit transactions, marking 77% year-over-year growth. This shift mirrors the broader trend in the crypto market where they are used more to transfer fixed values, getting away from the volatility of Bitcoin. However, centralised stablecoin issuers like Tether have frozen funds linked to crimes such as scams and terrorism financing.

Credit: Chainalysis

Even then, other forms of crypto crime continue to revolve around Bitcoin. Ransomware and darknet market (DNM) transactions still predominantly rely on BTC, illustrating its persistent role in specific illicit activities.

Privacy coins like Monero have seen a rise in usage within the DNM space.  Other forms of crypto crime, such as scams or money-laundering, involve a very wide range of assets, reflecting the diverse ways illicit actors are adapting to the growing crypto industry.

The report also revealed that transactions involving sanctioned entities, especially in jurisdictions where access to the traditional financial system is restricted, lean toward stablecoins. The bottom line is that cryptocurrencies are used everywhere, even in conflict zones.

Authorities will look at these to try to understand illicit activities. They will have their work cut out, as it has been previously reported that less than 10% of stablecoin transactions are from real users. 

Stolen Funds and Scams: North Korean Hackers Run the Show

Stolen funds increased by 21% year-over-year, reaching $2.2 billion. While decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms were the primary targets for these thefts, centralized services took the damage in the second and third quarters of 2024.

North Korea, as is slowly becoming the norm, is responsible for the lion’s share of these hacks. North Korea stole a record $1.34 billion in 2024, up from $660.5 million the previous year. These hacks are increasingly carried out by North Korean IT workers who infiltrate crypto and Web3 crypto companies to use advanced tactics to compromise private keys. This tactic has been used in nearly 44% of all stolen crypto in 2024.

High-yield investment scams and ‘pig butchering’ schemes flourished in 2024. With AI being one of the biggest crypto narratives, it was only a matter of time before it was used in scams. Bad actors used AI to bypass KYC regulations. Crypto ATM scams are also on the rise, targeting the elderly.

Law Enforcement Closes in on Ransomware

Ransomware remains a major threat. It continues to generate millions of dollars despite two major challenges: law enforcement disruption, and a decrease in victim willingness to pay ransoms. Attack volumes remained stable in 2024, but the payments made were lower than in previous years. 

Darknet markets (DNMs) saw a slight decline in revenue, earning $2 billion compared to nearly $2.3 billion in 2023. Fraud shop activity dropped sharply by more than half, totaling $220.1 million. This decline in fraud shop volumes can be partly attributed to a major U.S.-Dutch operation that dismantled the Universal Anonymous Payment System (UAPS), a crypto-processor used by numerous fraud shops.

Credit: Tesfu Assefa

Crypto Crime Is Getting More and More Complex

Crypto crime is becoming diverse and professional as organized groups use digital assets for a wide range of traditional crimes. In 2024, a sizable portion of the $40.9 billion received by illicit crypto addresses came from entities providing the infrastructure and services necessary for criminal operations, such as laundering and hacking tools.

Huione Guarantee serves as a prime example of the growing professionalization of crypto crime. The marketplace has processed over $70 billion in crypto transactions since 2021, facilitating illicit activities such as servicing sanctioned entities.

Wrapping Up

Crypto criminal networks are bigger and more sophisticated than before. The ball is in the authorities’ courts to thwart the rising complexity of crypto crime before it spirals beyond control. Whether they will get the support under a Trump administration is still debatable. 

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How to Keep Your Crypto Portfolio Safe in 2025

As Bitcoin surges past $104,000 around the Trump inauguration, which brings a pro-crypto administration for the first time ever to the United States of America, newcomers and veterans alike face increasingly sophisticated threats to their digital assets. 

The FBI’s revelation that crypto scams resulted in $2.57 billion in 2023 and Chainalysis reporting $2.2 billion lost in 2024, with individual victims losing an average of $54,000, serves as a sobering reminder that security cannot be an afterthought. 

Drawing from recent cases and expert insights as shared by ApEx, here’s what you need to know to safeguard your crypto portfolio in 2025.

The Foundation: Seed Phrase Security

It all starts with your private key or seed phrase. Your seed phrase is effectively the master key to your crypto kingdom, and treating it with anything less than extreme caution is a recipe for disaster. 

Blockchain.com’s analysis last year revealed a telling statistic: 27% of cryptocurrency losses in 2023 stemmed from compromised seed phrases, with victims losing an average of $85,000.

The most dangerous mistake? Digital storage. Whether it’s a screenshot, a notes app, or cloud storage, cybercriminals deploy specialized malware designed to scan for these digital breadcrumbs. 

A particularly devastating case in 2023 saw hackers targeting cloud-synced screenshots, resulting in millions in losses. And it’s not just hackers you have to worry about. As the recent devastating Los Angeles firestorm has shown, “safe as houses” don’t apply when your crypto kingdom is written on a piece of paper stored in your burning home’s safe. 

You need physical security as well as digital. Write your seed phrase on metal plates or high-quality paper, and distribute copies across multiple secure locations like safety deposit boxes. This old-school approach might seem inconvenient, but it’s far better than losing your entire portfolio to a digital breach. Cold storage is always a welcome safety shield, but it’s only as good as your seed phrase protection. Using advanced techniques like multi-sig or multi-party computation (MPC) is also smart. 

Device Security: Your First Line of Defense

The mobile revolution made cryptocurrency trading more accessible but also more vulnerable. Symantec’s 2023 Internet Security Threat Report found that 42% of mobile device users experienced security breaches affecting their crypto holdings. In one particularly aggressive attack, spyware targeting Android users intercepted SMS two-factor authentication codes and drained wallets, with one victim losing $200,000 in minutes.

The most effective countermeasure is device dedication – maintaining separate devices specifically for cryptocurrency transactions. These devices should have full-disk encryption and regular system updates. While this approach might seem excessive, it creates a secure environment that significantly reduces your exposure to malware and other digital threats.

Social Media: The New Battleground

The rise of artificial intelligence has given scammers powerful new tools. According to the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre, 73% of cryptocurrency scams in 2023 originated on social media platforms. The most alarming development is the use of deepfake technology to impersonate trusted figures in the crypto space.

A particularly sophisticated scam in 2023 employed deepfake videos of Elon Musk promoting fraudulent cryptocurrency projects, ultimately stealing over $100 million from victims. These scams succeed because they exploit our natural tendency to trust familiar faces and voices. In 2025, they’re even more evolved, using AI agentic technology to fool users. They especially target Twitter and Telegram groups, posing as real people. 

Protection requires you to remember two directives: 

  • First, interact exclusively with verified profiles and official websites, using bookmarks to bypass potential phishing links. 
  • Second, adopt universal skepticism toward investment opportunities, regardless of who appears to endorse them. 

Remember: legitimate crypto projects don’t need to solicit investments through direct messages or social media posts.

Credit: Tesfu Assefa

Smart Contracts: Hidden Dangers in Plain Sight

The DeFi sector’s explosive growth has made smart contract vulnerabilities an increasingly lucrative target. In 2023 alone, exploits in smart contracts led to losses exceeding $686 million. A single high-profile incident resulted in a $120 million theft, affecting thousands of users who believed their investments were secure.

To navigate this risk, limit your DeFi activities to protocols audited by established security firms. More importantly, regularly review and revoke token approvals – these permissions can become backdoors for wallet-draining exploits. Some hardware wallets have built-in Web3 contract review features. These allow you to verify a contract’s interactions before approving it: an additional layer of protection against smart contract vulnerabilities.

The Silent Threat: Clipboard Hijacking

One of the most insidious threats in cryptocurrency trading is clipboard hijacking malware. These programs silently monitor your clipboard, and when you ‘copy’ a wallet address into your clipboard, it switches it for one controlled by attackers. Kaspersky’s research shows a 30% increase in these attacks, with one notable case resulting in a €50,000 loss from a single transaction.

The defense against this threat requires vigilance and proper tools. Check the recipient address character by character before you hit ‘send’. When possible, use QR codes instead of copy-paste operations. Hardware wallets that display and verify transaction details provide crucial protection against these attacks.

The Power of Test Transactions

Perhaps the simplest yet most overlooked security practice is to send test transactions.

 Coinbase reports that 33% of irreversible transaction errors could have been prevented by this basic precaution. A notable case saw an investor lose $10,000 in Ethereum by accidentally sending funds to a Binance Smart Chain address – a mistake that a small test transaction would have revealed. I have personally lost $1000 USD sending funds to Polymarket over the wrong network, and which surprise, surprise, and my numerous emails and messages has not even received a single reply from Polymarket’s team. I’ve also lost $500 USD when I copied and pasted a Solana address and missed the first letter. Somehow the transaction went through, and those funds are lost forever. 

A refresher: 

  1. Before sending large amounts, always conduct a small transaction to test if the address and network are correct. 
  2. Once confirmed, document the successful steps for future reference.

This small investment in time and transaction fees can prevent catastrophic losses.

As cryptocurrency adoption continues to grow, the security landscape grows more complex. Yet the fundamentals remain unchanged: combining technical safeguards with cautious practices provides the strongest defense against scams and theft. Stay safe so that you don’t look back at the end of the year and mourn the life-changing funds the bad guys now have instead of you.

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Bitcoin Price Predictions for 2025: Wall Street Meets Crypto

Introduction

It was a nervous start to 2025, but a year expected to be a bumper one for crypto. There are a few reasons to be optimistic: incoming president Trump’s patronage, Michael Saylor’s relentless buying and the possibility of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve

Yet Bitcoin surprisingly had a bad start to 2025. It tumbled below $91k at the start of this week (13 Jan), as the Fed signaled slower rate cuts and the DOJ prepared to unload $6.5 billion worth of seized crypto. But when traders hit the ‘sell’ button, there was a counter-movement: major players from Wall Street to Silicon Valley bet on much higher prices, and the price has rebounded from 12% this week to its current $104k (17 Jan).

Is the Trump inauguration a “buy the rumor sell the news” event? Is the market top already in? I don’t have that answer. Instead, let’s zoom out a little and see what the experts and TradFi smart money believe is in store for the world’s leading cryptocurrency in 2025. 

The Bitcoin Bull Case

The biggest banks on Wall Street are now all business about Bitcoin. 

“Bitcoin has moved beyond the retail speculation phase,” says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, who sees prices reaching $250,000. Lee points to last November’s record $6.2 billion ETF inflows as evidence that big money is finally embracing crypto.

Tech Visionaries Double Down

Tech investor Tim Draper isn’t backing down from his $250,000 prediction. The early Tesla and Skype backer calls Bitcoin “cheap” even as it trades near $100,000. He’s joined by MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor, whose company keeps accumulating Bitcoin through every market swing.

“People will freak out when Bitcoin crashes from $180,000 to $140,000,” Saylor says, comparing price swings to the revolutionary impact of putting engines in horse carriages. “Volatility is the price of growth.”

The Institutional Wave

Major financial institutions have dramatically shifted their stance on Bitcoin. 

Morgan Creek Capital’s Mark Yusko targets $150,000, citing growing institutional FOMO. Van Eck’s research team projects $180,000 or higher within a year, driven by shifting political winds and institutional adoption.

The numbers back up this institutional interest. On top of the headline-grabbing ETF inflows, major banks are building crypto trading desks, and pension funds are dipping their toes in the market. 

Standard Chartered makes comparisons to gold’s 4× price increase after its first ETF launch, suggesting Bitcoin could follow a similar trajectory.

A daringly precise prediction comes from quantitative analyst Sminston With: $275,000 on 1 Nov, 2025. They base this on ‘regression analysis’ of previous market cycles, a mathematical guess as opposed to the more intuitive ones from market veterans.

Credit: Tesfu Assefa

Market Headwinds

Not everyone’s convinced the path higher will be smooth. The DOJ’s planned sale of 69,370 Bitcoin looms over the market, while Fed warnings about persistent inflation suggest interest rates might stay higher for longer. Some analysts warn this could cap Bitcoin’s upside in the near term.

InvestingHaven’s analysts warn Bitcoin could drop to $75,000 in their bearish scenario. 

Robert Kiyosaki expects a “bloodbath” down to $60,000 before a potential surge to $250,000 later in 2025. 

Maybe people are giving too much weight to the upcoming DoJ sale – the $6.7 billion potential selloff must be considered against things like the $10 billion that MicroStrategy acquired in December alone. 

The Political Factor

The incoming Trump administration’s crypto stance adds another layer to price predictions. Plans for a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and a potential shift in oversight from the SEC to the CFTC have caught Wall Street’s attention. In addition, Donald Trump’s has appointed numerous crypto bulls such as new SEC chair Paul Atkins and crypto czar David Sacks, who will reshape current policy. 

AllianceBernstein analyst Eric Martindale notes, “We’re seeing a fundamental shift in how institutions view Bitcoin. It’s no longer a question of if they’ll adopt Bitcoin, but when and how much.”

The USA’s moves put peer pressure on other countries to create their own reserves – a factor that could make things very interesting. 

Global Money Flows

Beyond U.S. borders, global institutional adoption continues to accelerate. Japanese pension funds are increasing crypto allocations, while European investment firms are launching their own crypto products. This global demand could help absorb selling pressure from events like the DOJ’s Bitcoin liquidation.

Technical Perspectives

Chart analysts point to several key levels that could influence Bitcoin’s path to the lofty predictions above. The recent consolidation near $100,000 has established strong support levels, while previous cycle data suggests potential resistance around $150,000 and $180,000.

These technical factors matter more than ever, as institutional traders bring their traditional market expertise to crypto. “The market is maturing,” says Yusko. “Technical analysis works better now because the traders using it have billions to put behind their convictions.”

Long-Term Vision

Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood takes an even longer view, predicting $650,000 by 2030 with potential upside to $1.5 million. “Bitcoin is evolving into a standard part of institutional portfolios,” she says. This long-term perspective helps explain why many institutions aren’t deterred by short-term volatility.

Investment Implications

Today’s Bitcoin market combines institutional muscle with residual retail speculation. Predictions grab headlines, but Bitcoin remains notoriously unpredictable. The DoJ’s planned sale shows how large holders can still move markets. Add uncertain Fed policy and changing regulations, and investors should expect turbulence.

But something fundamental has changed. BlackRock doesn’t launch ETFs for passing fads. Standard Chartered doesn’t make price predictions about memecoins. The world’s biggest financial players are betting Bitcoin is here to stay. Unlike previous cycles built on retail hype, this one has serious institutional backing.

Looking Ahead

Most experts cluster around $200,000 for 2025, but the path there won’t be smooth. Monday’s drop shows how macro factors can still rock the market.

Whether Bitcoin hits these ambitious targets or not, one thing is clear: Wall Street and Washington DC’s Bitcoin skeptics have become Bitcoin believers who are likely diamond handed. As institutional money flows in and regulations evolve, 2025’s price predictions may say less about Bitcoin’s future than the transformation in global finance.

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Ten Essential Bitcoin Charts To Know In 2025

Introduction

Cryptocurrency markets change quickly, so it is important for investors to monitor key metrics that show market trends, performance, and sentiment.  

Bitcoin is king, and where it goes, the market usually follows. These charts provide essential data to understand Bitcoin’s market position, performance, and future trends. Let’s dive in. 

  1. Bitcoin/USD
Credit: CoinMarketCap

Everything in crypto starts with the Bitcoin chart, measured against the de-facto world currency (for now?) the U.S. Dollar. This is the first and still most important chart in crypto, which you can find on sites like CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, and your favorite exchange’s BTC trading page. 

Determine the time range you’d like to review – with Bitcoin, it’s better to zoom out to steady your nerves; the 4-year halving cycle below proves this. Dial up Crypto Twitter, understand how events like Chinese New Year, Christmas, U.S. Tax Season, U.S. elections, summer holidays and others can impact the price of BTC each year. 

Also, understand how to read a Bitcoin depth chart here. You have your homework cut out for you! 

  1. Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)
Credit: TradingView

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) represents Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market. When BTC.D rises, it signals that Bitcoin is performing better than altcoins, often during market corrections when investors prefer safer assets. 

A falling BTC.D usually indicates increased interest in altcoins, particularly in bullish markets as traders chase higher returns. For example, during the 2017 ICO surge, BTC.D dropped to nearly 32% due to an altcoin boom. 

Tracking BTC.D helps traders understand market dynamics and adjust their portfolios accordingly, balancing exposure between Bitcoin and altcoins based on current trends and sentiment.

  1. Bitcoin mining hash rate
Credit: Blockchain.com

The Bitcoin mining hash rate measures the computational power used by miners to process transactions and secure the Bitcoin network. It shows how many calculations are performed every second to solve the mathematical problems required for mining new Bitcoin blocks. 

A higher hash rate makes the network more secure, as it becomes harder for bad actors to control or attack it. Factors that influence the hash rate include mining equipment efficiency, electricity costs, and Bitcoin’s price. Over the years, the hash rate has grown significantly, due to advancements in technology and increased participation from global mining operations.

  1. On-Chain Metrics (Wallet Balances & Transactions)
Credit: The Block

On-chain metrics track blockchain activity by analyzing wallet balances and transaction histories. Wallet balances reveal how much cryptocurrency users are holding, helping identify trends like accumulation or selling. 

‘Transaction volume’ measures the number of transactions happening on the network, showing how actively the cryptocurrency is being used. Higher transaction volumes can signal strong market activity, while lower volume may suggest reduced engagement. 

These metrics provide a hint of a cryptocurrency’s network health, helping investors make better decisions based on real blockchain data instead of relying solely on price charts or market speculation.

  1. Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR)
Credit: CryptoQuant

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the total market cap of all stablecoins. It shows how much buying power stablecoins have relative to Bitcoin. A low SSR means there are more stablecoins available, indicating strong potential buying power that could push Bitcoin’s price up. 

A high SSR suggests fewer stablecoins are in circulation. This means less capital is available for Bitcoin purchases, a factor that could limit price movement. Investors use SSR to assess market liquidity and anticipate possible price movements based on how much money is ready to flow into Bitcoin from stablecoins.

Credit: Tesfu Assefa
  1. Bitcoin Volatility Index (Crypto VIX)
Credit: TradingView

The Bitcoin Volatility Index (Crypto VIX) measures how much Bitcoin’s price is expected to fluctuate over a set period, typically 30 days. It’s calculated using data from Bitcoin options trading. A high volatility index means Bitcoin’s price could change significantly; it means a risky and uncertain market. A low index suggests the market is stable: smaller price movements are expected. 

Traders and investors use this index to gauge market sentiment, adjust their portfolios, and make informed trading decisions. Understanding Bitcoin’s volatility helps manage risks and spot trading opportunities in the unpredictable cryptocurrency market.

  1. Bitcoin ETF inflows and institutional investments
Credit: Coinglass

ETF inflows and institutional investments play a crucial role in the cryptocurrency market. When large institutions invest in Bitcoin through ETFs, it indicates growing trust in digital assets. ETFs allow traditional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding it. 

For example, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has attracted billions of dollars, boosting market confidence. Higher ETF inflows often signal strong demand, which can push Bitcoin’s price upward. Investments from major firms like Fidelity and Grayscale show long-term interest. Monitoring these inflows helps investors gauge market sentiment, as increased institutional participation often leads to higher liquidity and reduced market volatility.

  1. Bitcoin four-year cycle
Credit: TradingView

The Bitcoin four-year cycle is a pattern based on Bitcoin’s halving events, which occur approximately every four years. During each halving, the reward for mining Bitcoin is reduced by half, limiting new supply. This scarcity often leads to price increases due to higher demand and lower availability.

The cycle includes four phases: accumulation, uptrend, distribution, and downtrend. Prices typically rise after halving events, followed by a peak, profit-taking, and eventual correction. Understanding this cycle helps investors anticipate potential market movements. By studying past cycles, traders can make better investment decisions, identifying favorable entry and exit points for long-term profitability.

  1. Bitcoin Exchange Flows
Credit: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin Exchange Flows charts are used by traders to monitor the flow of Bitcoin into and out of exchanges. This can provide insights into market sentiment and potential price movements, and traders can gauge whether investors are accumulating or distributing their holdings. Increased inflows often indicate that traders are preparing to sell, which can lead to downward price pressure, while outflows suggest accumulation and potential bullish trends. 

Additionally, these charts help identify significant shifts in trading volume, which can signal upcoming volatility or trend reversals. Understanding exchange flows thus empowers traders to make informed decisions based on market dynamics and investor behavior. 

  1. Altcoin Season Index
Credit: Coinmarketcap

Bitcoin doesn’t just go up indefinitely. Eventually, it’ll take a breather and let the rest of the market share in the spoils, which sees massive growth for the many altcoins. 

Altcoin Season Index tracks how well altcoins perform compared to Bitcoin over a 90-day period. If 75% or more of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin, it is considered an ‘Altcoin Season’: a strong altcoin market.

If fewer than 25% outperform Bitcoin, it’s ‘Bitcoin Season’, meaning Bitcoin is dominating the market. This index helps investors see when altcoins might offer better returns, guiding them to a trading strategy that favours altcoins. By keeping an eye on this index, traders can adjust their portfolios to take advantage when the market trends towards Bitcoin and away from it, to maximize potential profits during favorable market conditions.

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Fully Homomorphic Encryption: Revolutionizing Crypto Privacy

The cryptocurrency industry has always walked a fine line between transparency and privacy. Public ledgers like Bitcoin ensure transparency, but the lack of privacy poses challenges for individuals and enterprises alike. It was therefore a welcome signal from U.S. regulators when U.S. courts threw out the OFAC case against TornadoCash, a mainstay privacy “mixer” protocol. Privacy is back in vogue in 2025, so what’s next? 

Enter Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE)—a cutting-edge cryptographic solution that can reshape how privacy and data security are handled in crypto.

FHE has the potential to address some of crypto’s most pressing privacy and scalability challenges. FHE can run computations on encrypted data, and this unlocks use-cases previously deemed impractical – such as private smart contracts, confidential DeFi transactions, and secure voting in DAOs.

Let’s dive into how FHE works, its advantages over existing solutions, and how Web3 projects like Zama and Fhenix are applying this revolutionary technology to the crypto space.

What is Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE)?

In cryptocurrency, privacy and security are paramount, but they often come at a cost to usability or performance. FHE offers a novel way to maintain privacy without compromising functionality, because – unlike traditional encryption, which requires decrypting data for processing – FHE allows operations directly on encrypted data. 

For example, imagine a DeFi protocol that calculates how much a user can make by yield farming on their wallet. It would be desirable to keep the balances of the wallet private. Fully Homomorphic Encryption can run yield computations on encrypted wallet balances, keeping the user’s financial data private while still enabling the software to work with that data. Once the FHE computation has run, the output matches what the operation would have produced on plaintext data, but end-to-end security was maintained.

How FHE Works in Crypto

Credit: IBM Systems

FHE works by using complex mathematical operations to encode data such that only authorized parties can decrypt and view results. Here’s how it applies to crypto-specific use cases:

  1. Data Encryption: Wallet balances, transaction details, and smart contract states are encrypted using a public key.
  1. Computation on Encrypted Data: The blockchain, or a decentralized application (dApp), performs necessary computations (e.g., token swaps, staking rewards) without decrypting the data.
  1. Decryption of the output: The user or authorized party decrypts the result using their private key, revealing the final outcome (e.g., the amount of rewards earned).

This approach keeps all sensitive data encrypted during processing, ensuring no one—including validators or miners—can access private details.

How FHE Improves on zk-SNARKs and zk-STARKs

Zero-knowledge (zk) proofs, such as zk-SNARKs and zk-STARKs, have been instrumental in enhancing blockchain privacy. They allow users to prove the validity of a statement (e.g., ownership of funds) without revealing the underlying data. However, zk-proofs are limited to verification tasks and are not suited for general-purpose computations on encrypted data.

Fully Homomorphic Encryption takes privacy a level beyond zk-proofs by enabling arbitrary computations. Here’s how FHE improves on zk-tech:

  • Generalized Computation: While zk-proofs specialize in verifying specific claims, FHE supports complex computations, such as executing encrypted smart contracts.
  • Privacy Across Layers: FHE provides privacy for both on-chain and off-chain processes, whereas zk-proofs are primarily limited to specific use cases like transaction anonymity.
  • Reduced Interactivity: zk-proofs often require interactive proof-generation, whereas FHE computations are non-interactive, making them more scalable for decentralized environments.

Benefits of FHE in Crypto

  1. Privacy-Preserving Smart Contracts

Smart contracts are the backbone of DeFi, but their transparency can be a double-edged sword. FHE enables the execution of private smart contracts, where all inputs, states, and outputs remain encrypted. For instance, a private lending protocol could assess borrower creditworthiness without exposing sensitive financial data.

  1. Confidential Transactions

While zk-proofs already allow for confidential transactions (e.g. Zcash, Tornado Cash), FHE expands this capability by enabling additional computations. For example, an FHE-based DeFi aggregator could send trades across multiple liquidity pools without unmasking the user.

  1. Decentralized Identity (DID)

FHE can enhance decentralized identity systems because it can keep identity data encrypted, and still enabling verifiable computations on it. This ensures privacy during authentication processes: for example, for adult dApps, the system could verify that someone is over 18 without needing to know their date-of-birth or any other personal information.

  1. Regulatory Compliance

With regulators increasingly scrutinizing the crypto industry, FHE allows platforms to provide compliance-ready solutions without sacrificing user privacy. For example, exchanges could perform anti-money laundering (AML) checks on encrypted user data, ensuring compliance while safeguarding user identities.

  1. Secure Multi-Party Computation (MPC)

FHE simplifies secure multi-party computation, a process essential for activities like DAO voting and collaborative audits. Participants contribute encrypted inputs, and computations are performed on those without revealing individual input data.

Biggest FHE Projects for 2025

Zama: Bridging FHE and Blockchain

Zama is a trailblazer in bringing Fully Homomorphic Encryption to real-world applications, including blockchain and crypto. Their goal is to make FHE accessible to developers through optimized tools and libraries.

Credit: Zama
  • Concrete Framework: Zama’s open-source ‘Concrete’ library simplifies the integration of FHE into decentralized applications. For example, developers can use this framework to create private smart contracts without needing advanced cryptography expertise.
  • DeFi Use Cases: Zama is actively exploring how FHE can enhance privacy in DeFi. Imagine yield optimizers like Yearn Finance performing encrypted calculations to generate optimal returns without exposing user balances or strategies.
  • Performance Optimization: Zama is addressing one of FHE’s biggest challenges—computation overhead—with hardware acceleration and mathematical optimizations.

Fhenix: Privacy Meets Scalability

Fhenix takes Fully Homomorphic Encryption a step further by applying it directly to blockchain architecture. Their mission is to create privacy-preserving, scalable solutions that address the main blockchain limitations.

  • Encrypted Smart Contracts: Fhenix enables private smart contracts. Developers can use this to build dApps that process sensitive data securely. For example, a payroll dApp could compute salaries based on encrypted work hours without revealing employee data to the employer.
  • Layer-2 Scalability: Fhenix uses FHE to help layer-2 scalability. Encrypted transactions are bundled and processed off-chain, reducing blockchain congestion while maintaining privacy.
  • Privacy-First DAOs: By integrating FHE, Fhenix supports confidential DAO voting and decision-making processes, ensuring member privacy without sacrificing transparency.

The protocol has a ton of other use cases, such as MEV protection and blind auctions. 

Credit: Gate Learn

Challenges and the Road Ahead

For all its promise, Fully Homomorphic Encryption still faces challenges that need to be addressed for widespread adoption in crypto:

  1. Computation Overhead: FHE operations are resource-intensive, and can be slower than traditional methods. Zama and Fhenix are working to optimize performance, but further advancements are needed.
  2. Key Management: Secure and user-friendly key management is critical for FHE adoption in crypto wallets and applications.
  3. Interoperability: Standardization across different FHE schemes to ensure compatibility across a broad blockchain ecosystem.
  4. Developer Adoption: Making it easy to integrate FHE tools into dApps is crucial for fostering adoption.

Conclusion

Fully Homomorphic Encryption represents a paradigm shift in crypto privacy and security. By enabling computations on encrypted data, FHE empowers developers to build complex privacy-preserving applications that were previously impossible. 

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What is Decentralized Science (DeSci)?

Introduction

Science is the cornerstone of human progress, but slow processes, limited access to funding, and opaque practices often hinder innovation. Decentralized science (DeSci) has recently emerged as a potential competitor to the old order of science. DeSci uses the tenets of blockchain technology – decentralization, democratized access, and transparency – to open new doors for collaboration, funding, and discovery.

Freed from traditional institutions and gatekeepers, DeSci is transforming how research is conducted, shared, and funded. It’s not just improving science: it’s making it more open, efficient, and accessible. The COVID-19 pandemic showed the disconnect between science and the public’s perception of facts. Science should not have problems with individuals or the public when it’s brought down out of the ivory towers.

Can DeSci reshape science and restore lost trust?

What are the Challenges of Traditional Science?

One major issue with traditional science is accessibility. Scientific publishing is often controlled by for-profit journals. Scientists should focus on solving scientific problems, instead of on accessing journals behind paywalls. The centralized business of scientific publication is highly profitable, and is concentrated in the hands of a few companies. 

Interdisciplinary and inclusive research is often sidelined. Funding tends to be directed to established fields, leaving innovative or minority-led projects underfunded.

Transparency is also a concern. Allocation of research funding can lack accountability. The peer review process may lack complete transparency, leaving room for bias.

DeSci seeks to address these challenges by rethinking how science is organized and shared.

Principles and Values of DeSci

Here are some of the core principles that DeSci uses in the hope of creating a better scientific ecosystem:

  • Transparency: Research data and findings should be accessible to everyone. Transparent processes build trust within the scientific community.
  • Collaboration Across Disciplines: Solving complex problems requires teamwork. DeSci encourages researchers from different fields to collaborate. This breaks down silos and fosters innovation.

What are the Benefits of DeSci?

Decentralized Science (DeSci) offers numerous benefits that address the limitations of traditional scientific practices while opening new pathways for research and collaboration. Here are the key benefits:

  • Crowdfunding – Blockchain has proven itself as a way of raising funds for unconventional projects that would not have otherwise seen the light of day. With DeSci, researchers can propose projects directly to the community, limiting the influence of major centralized organizations that bring their motives and agendas.
  • Tokenization and Funding – DeSci enables the tokenization of research data, or intellectual property. Researchers and volunteers can receive direct compensation for their contributions, creating new funding models and incentives.
  • Enhanced Data Security – Research data stored on decentralized ledgers is secure and immutable. This prevents data manipulation since blockchains are tamper-proof.
  • Improved Science Communication – Science text is filled with jargon that the average Jane and Joe don’t understand. DeSci, together with AI, can create science summaries that promote understanding and trust. This could help to dispel science myths and dangerous science conspiracy theories. 

Is DeSci Gaining Traction?

DeSci is a relatively small sector in the crypto field. This is nothing to be ashamed of: other sectors such as DeFi, DePIN, and AI started this way. As of December 10, DeSci has a market cap of than $800 million spread across more than 40 projects.

Credit: CoinMarketCap

DeSci is also enjoying the support of leading crypto figures and firms. Binance, through its venture arm Binance Labs, invested an undisclosed sum in Bio Protocol to accelerate decentralized science. This is a significant development, making it the next sector of crypto to grab headlines and gain public attention. In most cases, venture firms like to invest in projects or companies before they catch fire and explode.

Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao, better known as CZ, and Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin attended a small DeSci gathering organized by Labs in Bangkok. 

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong co-founded ResearchCoin, a DeSci project. 

DeSci could be the next big thing as crypto leaders take small but bold steps in supporting decentralized science. It may not be a good idea to bet against it. 

DeSci is also integrating with emerging technology. The incorporation of AI and the Internet of Things (IoT) into DeSci enhances data input and analysis. 

Importantly, token-based incentives can go a long way in rewarding peer reviewers and contributors. This aspect of DeSci makes it more financially attractive than traditional science.

Top DeSci Projects

Here are four leading DeSci projects to be aware of:

ResearchCoin (RSC)

ResearchHub aims to accelerate scientific progress by creating a collaborative platform for researchers. This is similar to how GitHub is used for software development. Its token, ResearchCoin (RSC), incentivizes contributions like uploading research, peer reviews, and discussions. RSC can also be used to tip for content, reward tasks, and fund scientific projects.

Hippocrat (HPO)

Hippocrat (HPO) is a decentralized cryptocurrency revolutionizing healthcare by giving people control over their health data. Using blockchain and zero-knowledge-proof technologies, it ensures data privacy, security, and collaboration.

VitaDAO

VitaDAO is a community-owned DAO. Members collectively engage in decision-making about funding research on extending human lifespan and improving longevity. The aim is to foster collaboration in longevity science, and support drug development through decentralized, member-governed governance. 

Rejuve.AI (RJV)

Rejuve.AI, under the SingularityNET umbrella, is the first decentralized aging research network powered by AI. It aims to make longevity accessible for all by building a global wellness ecosystem centered around the RJV Token. Rejuve.AI incentivizes secure health data sharing, allowing individuals to harness their data’s earning potential via blockchain and smart contracts. Through gamification and microlearning, their Rejuve Longevity App engages users and encourages them to take an active role in their health. Rejuve.AI is also exploring novel frontiers such as quantum biology to uncover new clues in the fight against aging.

Credit: Tesfu Assefa

Conclusion

DeSci is gaining momentum due to its advantages over traditional science, addressing issues like gatekeeping and lack of transparency. The sector spans diverse areas, including decentralized medicine and longevity research, offering innovative solutions to complex challenges.

However, DeSci is not without criticism. Some view it as a cash-grab, while others see it as overly ambitious or misinformed. These criticisms highlight that DeSci is still in its early stages of development.

Like any transformative movement, DeSci requires time to mature and build public trust. While the road ahead is long, it can become the future of science if it plays its cards right.

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Has the Altcoin Season Started?

Introduction

While Bitcoin has had its moment this year, most crypto traders have one wish for Christmas: the arrival of altcoin season when green candles fly across the market. The mood has shifted and many are thinking the crypto gods have ushered in altcoin season. 

Altcoins are making a strong comeback, with some old coins, ‘dinosaur’ coins like XRP, HBAR and XLM, notching crazy gains. The industry, which has suffered at the hands of regulators, is about to catch a break as the USA shifts its regulatory stance on crypto. 

World Liberty Financial, a company linked to President-elect Donald Trump has splashed millions buying altcoins – Ethereum, LINK, and AAVE. Is it time for the ‘Number Go Up’ memes?

With fresh optimism in the market, let’s check the signs and trends to assess whether the altcoin season is approaching or has started.

You don’t want to be late to the bull market’s ‘altcoin season’ party.

What is the Altcoin Season?

Altcoin season refers to a market phase where altcoins outperform Bitcoin on price appreciation. Historically, these periods have been marked by dramatic gains for smaller and less established coins, as traders and investors diversify away from Bitcoin in search of higher returns.

To identify altcoin season, crypto analysts often use the ‘Altcoin Season Index’. This index evaluates the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over a specified period. When a significant majority of altcoins outperform Bitcoin, the index signals that altcoin season has started.

The Altcoin Season Index

CoinMarketCap, the world’s leading crypto price tracker, has an Altcoin Season Index which measures the performance of the top 100 altcoins against Bitcoin over the past 90 days. This index helps determine if an altcoin season has truly started.

Currently, the index sits at 62/100, a decline from the first week of December, with a peak of 87/100 on December 4. Here’s how to interpret these numbers:

  • A score of 75/100 or higher signals an altcoin season.
  • A score of 25/100 or lower suggests a Bitcoin-dominated market.
Credit: CoinMarketCap

While the altcoin season hasn’t officially arrived, the spike to 87/100 on December 4 indicated strong momentum for altcoins. However, a market dip on December 10 caused a dip in the index, leading to losses for several major altcoins. 

Still, based on historical trends and Bitcoin’s current dominance, this could simply be the beginning stages of an altcoin season.

What are the Phases of an Altcoin Season?

Altcoin season typically unfolds in several distinct phases:

Phase 1: Bitcoin Dominance

Traders often first move capital into Bitcoin, seeking stability. This cycle, it’s clear why. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the USA has brought in over $104 billion in assets. This surge helped Bitcoin break the $100k barrier, and even led The Financial Times to apologize for doubting Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s dominance has dropped from 60.1% to 54.8%, as altcoins begin to make big moves. While altcoins are still taking small steps, they are moving closer to a full-blown season.

Credit: CoinMarketCap

Phase 2: Ethereum Gain Momentum

Traditionally, Ethereum would attract the next major capital inflows. But this cycle has been different. Dinosaur coins like XRP, Cardano (ADA), and Stellar have surged back to life. Solana has already reached a new high. Ethereum started the uptrend quietly, but has since regained momentum, pushing toward a new high.

Meme coins have also captured a large share of the market gains. Perhaps it’s because meme coins are simple to understand and less complex than other altcoins.

Credit: CoinMarketCap

Phase 3: Large-Cap Altcoins Rally

Attention shifts to large-cap altcoins as they see a surge in trading volumes. Now, dips are seen as opportunities. Traders with dry powder add to their bags.

Phase 4: Speculative Mania in Smaller Altcoins

Finally, everyone feels like a genius, and traders throw caution to the wind. Smaller-cap altcoins explode in value, driven by FOMO and ‘wen lambo’ posts on social media.

Always keep in mind that not all cycles are the same. History may not repeat itself, but it rhymes. 

What Comes Next

The last major altcoin season occurred in the first half of 2021. During that time, the top 100 altcoins outperformed Bitcoin and lowered its dominance from 61.9% to 40%.

Altcoins like BNB, Dogecoin, XRP, and Chainlink (LINK) hit new highs, with many outpacing Bitcoin for nearly five months. However, gains weren’t spread evenly. Altcoins tied to hot trends such as DeFi, Layer-1 blockchain, and Play-to-Earn (P2E) saw the most growth, while others lagged.

The market conditions now mirror those of 2021, suggesting Bitcoin’s dominance could drop to around 40% as altcoins continue to gain.

Credit: Tesfu Assefa

How to Prepare for the Altcoin Season

Traders need to prepare for the altcoin season. Here are some tools to monitor an altcoin season to avoid round tripping profits (or handing them back).

  • Altcoin Season Index: keep track of how altcoins are performing.
  • Sentiment analysis – monitor social media trends and investor sentiment to gauge potential shifts.

Investors should start building their thesis and identifying narratives that will fly as the altcoin season strengthens. The biggest crypto narratives to watch are as follows:

  • Real-World Assets
  • AI and decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN)
  • DEXs
  • Memecoins
  • Layer-1 and Layer-2 chains

Plan your entries and exits accordingly as nothing goes up forever. 

What Drives the 2024 Bull Run and Altcoin Season?

These factors are driving the 2024-25 bull run:

  • Institutional interest: The approval of spot Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs has triggered a surge in institutional investment and improved liquidity and credibility.
  • Change in monetary policies: The U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts have created a favorable environment for riskier assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.
  • Political factors and regulatory environment: The recent U.S. elections have sparked optimism among crypto investors, with hopes of pro-crypto policies under President Trump.
  • Seasonal trades: The fourth quarter has historically been bullish for cryptocurrencies, with investors accumulating in anticipation of year-end rallies.

Conclusion

The altcoin season is taking shape, with the foundation laid for a rally. The 2024-25 bull market will differ from previous ones, driven by a regulatory shift in the USA and the rise of institutional players through Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs.

Some altcoins have already hit new milestones: Bitcoin is hovering around $100,000, and the altcoin season index has poked its head onto the upper reaches of the graph. However, expect a lot of volatility, and as always, don’t put all your eggs in one basket.

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Quantum vs. Bitcoin: The New Crypto FUD?

Introduction

If you’ve been in crypto for a while, you’ll know that some fresh new FUD is always around the corner. Now that Bitcoin has finally cracked that magical $100k milestone and the USA has a crypto-friendly government incoming, could quantum computing be the new bogeyman? 

Google’s New Math

On Monday, Google unveiled Willow, a quantum processor that completes certain calculations in five minutes. The same task would take today’s fastest supercomputer longer than the universe has existed. This leap in quantum computing has Bitcoin holders and other crypto investors concerned about the encryption that secures their digital fortunes, particularly the dormant wallets holding billions in early Bitcoin.

The numbers behind Willow tell a striking story. Traditional computers process information in bits – ones and zeros. Quantum computers use qubits, which can represent multiple states simultaneously. Willow’s 105 qubits might seem modest, but they’ve achieved something remarkable: stable error correction that improves exponentially as the system scales.

For cryptographers and Bitcoin developers, this matters a lot. Quantum computers with enough stable qubits could theoretically break the encryption that protects Bitcoin wallets

Google’s Quantum AI lead, Hartmut Neven, describes Willow’s achievement in almost mystical terms, suggesting the computation “occurs in many parallel universes.” Behind this dramatic language lies a practical breakthrough: the ability to maintain quantum states long enough to perform meaningful calculations.

A Numbers Game: Your Bitcoin Is (Probably) Safe

Kevin Rose, a former Google product manager, puts it bluntly: cracking Bitcoin’s current encryption standard would require 13 million qubits. Willow has 105. That’s like trying to breach a bank vault with a butter knife.

To generate addresses, Bitcoin takes a public key, and performs a cryptographic computation called hashing on it twice. Rose’s assurances are about the difficulty of computing a full public key from the Bitcoin address.

However, once the full public key is known, computing the private key that unlocks the money is a much easier quantum computation.

This leaves one corner of the Bitcoin network under genuine quantum risk. The oldest Bitcoin addresses used a simpler security format called P2PK, which left full public keys exposed on the blockchain. 

The distinction between P2PK and modern P2PKH (Pay to Public Key Hash) addresses marks a crucial security evolution. P2PKH addresses only expose their public keys when spending coins, giving them significant protection against quantum attacks. Even if quantum computers could break the encryption, they’d need to do so in the brief window between transaction broadcast and confirmation.

Satoshi’s Time Bomb

This vulnerability creates an extraordinary situation. Roughly one million Bitcoin – worth about $102 billion at current prices – sits in these early addresses. Many believe these coins belong to Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto. They haven’t moved in over a decade.

Some developers argue for preëmptive action: modifying Bitcoin’s code to freeze these vulnerable coins before quantum computers can crack them. It’s technically possible through a network fork. But others see this as heresy, violating Bitcoin’s core promise of immutability.

The technical debate centers on implementation methods. A soft fork could make specific UTXOs unspendable while maintaining backward compatibility. A hard fork would require network-wide consensus but could implement more comprehensive protections. Both approaches face significant political and philosophical hurdles within the Bitcoin community.

The Ethereum Answer

While Bitcoin debates, Ethereum makes moves. Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder, has outlined a straightforward quantum defense: a hard fork requiring all users to upgrade their security. No frozen funds, no philosophical crisis – just a mandatory update when quantum computers get close enough.

Researchers of post-quantum cryptography are developing new encryption algorithms that quantum computers can’t crack. Several cryptocurrencies are already testing these methods, preparing for a quantum-secure future.

The technical approaches vary: lattice-based cryptography, hash-based signatures, and multivariate cryptography each offer potential quantum resistance. Some projects combine multiple methods, creating layered defenses against both classical and quantum attacks.

Five Minutes vs. The Universe

Google’s claim about Willow’s five-minute calculation needs context. The chip solved a specific mathematical problem perfectly suited to quantum computing. Most computing tasks – including those involved in cryptocurrency mining and transactions – won’t benefit from this quantum hardware.

The problem Willow solved involves sampling from random quantum circuits. While impressive, this task was carefully chosen to demonstrate quantum supremacy. Breaking cryptocurrency encryption requires solving entirely different mathematical problems: factoring large numbers and computing discrete logarithms.

Google’s own quantum roadmap shows Willow reaching only milestone two of six. The path to 13 million stable qubits stretches far into the future. Yet quantum development has repeatedly outpaced predictions.

Credit: Tesfu Assefa

Beyond the Public Keys

Modern cryptocurrency security involves multiple layers. Even if quantum computers eventually crack public key encryption, they’ll face other barriers. Bitcoin’s proof-of-work system, hash functions, and network consensus mechanisms don’t rely solely on the algorithms quantum computers are good at cracking.

The cryptocurrency community has so far been pretty adaptable. When SHA-1 encryption showed weaknesses, Bitcoin developers had already moved to stronger alternatives. Similar foresight guides quantum defense planning.

Hash functions, particularly SHA-256 used in Bitcoin, show strong resistance to quantum attacks. Grover’s algorithm, a quantum method for searching unstructured databases, could theoretically speed up mining by finding hash collisions faster. But even this would only offer a quadratic speedup, requiring significant modifications to Bitcoin’s mining difficulty adjustment.

Technical Defenses Emerging

Cryptocurrency developers aren’t waiting for quantum computers to catch up. Teams across the ecosystem are implementing various defensive measures. Digital signature schemes like SPHINCS+ offer quantum resistance through hash-based signatures. Unlike current elliptic curve signatures, these methods rely on the security of hash functions, which better resist quantum attacks.

Some projects explore zero-knowledge proofs and other cryptographic primitives that maintain security even against quantum adversaries. These techniques could protect not just funds, but also transaction metadata and smart contract interactions.

Adapting the Future

Here’s the reality: quantum computing poses no immediate threat to cryptocurrency. But its steady advance demands attention. The solutions already exist in theory: they are post-quantum cryptography, network upgrades, and possibly even blockchain forks. The challenge lies in implementing them without disrupting the trillion-dollar cryptocurrency ecosystem.

The next decade will transform both quantum computing and cryptocurrency. Willow’s 105 qubits will seem quaint compared to future processors. Bitcoin’s security will evolve to match these advances. The real question isn’t whether cryptocurrency can survive quantum computing – it’s how effectively the technology will adapt.

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